Fear, loathing and defiance in climateland after US midterms

SHARM EL SHEIKH, Egypt — There were no election-watch parties here on Tuesday night. Either because no one at COP27 felt like partying, or no one could bear to watch.

Although the Republican blitz never emerged, the impending switch of at least one chamber of the U.S. Congress to a party that has embraced climate denial still sent a shiver of anxiety and defiance through the U.N. climate conference.

“I think everybody will see what’s waiting for us in another two years,” a senior European negotiator said, speaking on election night, before results were in.

Donald Trump, the former American president who dragged the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, announced ahead of Tuesday’s election that he would make a “very big announcement” next week. The expectation is that he’ll launch a tilt for a second presidency in 2024.

The climate summit, and the coinciding election, come as the world reels from the increasing impacts of a warming planet, and as inflationary pressure, a debt crisis among developing countries and geopolitical tensions distract attention from efforts to tackle climate change.

It also comes after a comparatively halcyon two-year period in which President Joe Biden attempted to rehabilitate the U.S. reputation on climate change. The result, less red wave than red ripple, provided some sense of ease to the Biden White House. But at climate talks the worry about U.S. unreliability prevailed.

“It’s not gonna directly change things, but it’s not going to be a good mood,” the European negotiator said.

News of the U.S. election didn’t land with the force with which Trump’s election hit the 2016 climate talks in Marrakech. Rather than the stricken silence of six years before, the halls of COP 27 on Wednesday morning were bouncing with the energy of a process that has grown familiar with America’s schizoid attitude to climate change.

That’s also because this year the midterm elections were less consequential and don’t look likely to derail — at least in the short term — measures the U.S. has passed over the past year toward delivering on its climate commitments. But it opens the door to fears of a Trump-backed Republican return in 2024.

“It’s a roller coaster for the rest of the world — our electoral shifts,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate with think tank E3G who has attended all but one of the 27 global climate talks.

“People are really upset with the way the U.S. political cycles and ups and down have shaped this process and forced the rest of the world to accommodate the U.S. political system,” he added.

Many global leaders have welcomed recent efforts by the Biden administration to show climate leadership. The Inflation Reduction Act, which includes a $370 billion package of incentives for clean energy investments and climate policy, puts a downpayment on a U.S. pledge to halve emissions by 2030.

That law is locked in, analysts are quick to point out. But a shift in power in Congress could complicate White House efforts to put that legislation into action and make it far harder to put more money toward international climate efforts — a key focus of this year’s climate talks.

Despite these reassurances, some on the outside have the impression that everything is now in play. The IRA was a “seminal piece of legislation,” said Stephen O’Driscoll, head of environment, climate and social policy at the European Investment Bank (EIB). “If there’s a pushback on that from the Republicans, then that is a real problem, a real problem going forward.”

Stingy finances

The U.S. already contributes far less in climate finance than many of its European allies with smaller economies. And despite Biden’s pledge to triple finance to $11.4 billion by 2024, Congress only approved $1 billion for international climate efforts this year.

On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent Washington a barely concealed rebuke: “We urge our partners in the Global North to step up their climate finance to the Global South.`”

It’s unlikely that the U.S. would be able to mobilize more money under a split Congress, putting pressure on Democrats to “play budget hardball” over the next month before the next Congress takes over and insist on an increase in funding for global climate efforts, Meyer said.

Speaking on Tuesday, EIB President Werner Hoyer said he feared that “totally open-minded” talks about cooperation with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation may be affected by U.S. retrenchment. “I hope this hope will survive the next 24 hours,” he said.

Without more public money, the U.S. will need to push for reforms in other areas, like the World Bank, or rely on other countries to step up, said Meyer.

On Wednesday, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry launched a controversial proposal to allow private companies to offset their emissions by paying for carbon reductions in emerging economies.

“My personal feeling is that they’re running out of time,” said a senior Latin American negotiator, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.

The U.S. delegation has been far more conciliatory than at earlier talks, the negotiator went on. “Normally, they just say, ‘This is it. Period.’ And now it’s more like, ‘Let’s talk, look now, let me convince you … because we know, we might not have a chance later.’”

Frances Colón, senior director for international climate policy at the Center for American Progress, said she doesn’t expect the election will impact the U.S. tone in talks on climate finance.

While U.S. officials have shown growing openness to discuss fraught topics such as compensation for irreparable climate damages, they’ve also been clear how hard is has proven to deliver, given the need for congressional approval.

“The world doesn’t have another U.S. political cycle to wait for,” Colón said. “What is imperative is that they continue to figure out how they will meet this.”