Five ways to save the United Kingdom

James Johnson is co-founder of J.L. Partners and a senior adviser to Kekst CNC. He previously ran polling in Downing Street under Prime Minister Theresa May.

In the spring of 2017, I spent two days in various Scottish homes, running focus groups with voters. I had been dispatched from Downing Street to find out one thing: How would voters react if the U.K. prime minister said no to an imminent request for a second independence referendum?

The answer was clear: Now is not the time. Not only was there very little appetite for another vote, but people were relaxed about the U.K. government rejecting it, as constitutionally they can do. Voters did not want the door to be shut forever, but many talked about the need to focus on Brexit and Scotland’s public services rather than get involved in another referendum debate. 

Now, as we move towards Scottish parliamentary elections early next year, a new poll by my firm, J.L. Partners, and shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows the picture has dramatically changed.

Amongst swing voters — that key slice of the Scottish public who will determine the outcome of any future referendum — 53 percent oppose the U.K. government declining a new referendum if the Scottish National Party wins a majority in May, with only 28 percent in support. Amongst undecided voters, 48 percent oppose and 21 percent support, a margin of more than two to one. 

For unionists, the picture painted by our poll is bleak. Independence has a 12-point lead over remaining in the Union, by 56 percent to 44 percent. The SNP is poised to win a decisive majority in the Scottish parliament, pushing the Conservatives and Labour down in vote share to the mid-teens.

This shift has been fostered by the coronavirus pandemic. Eighty-four percent of swing voters say the U.K. government has handled the coronavirus crisis badly compared to 74 percent who say the Scottish government has handled it well. In terms of net support, there is a gap of 124 points between the two governments.

Brexit is also key, as Scots wish to remain closer to the European Union than the kind of relationship they think Westminster is pursuing. And it’s personal — the most persuasive reason to vote for independence is: “Boris Johnson is not the leader I want to have for my country.”

It is hard not to look at these figures and assume the union is doomed. It is certainly the gravest situation the unionist cause has found itself in in recent history.

But all is not lost for the United Kingdom.

While Nicola Sturgeon is on national television every day, there is no live No campaign making the counter-arguments. The current lead for independence is not built on deep-set structural reasons, but rests on the current, relative strengths of Sturgeon’s brand and the weakness of Johnson’s north of the border. If the brands or the figures on stage change, it is not certain that Yes would retain a lead. 

So how to save the union? From a political and campaigning perspective, there are five key things that No. 10 and those interested in keeping Scotland within the United Kingdom should consider:

1. Avoid the emotional case for the United Kingdom

There is often a tendency in Westminster and Whitehall to want to plant the union flag and the government’s logo on everything to demonstrate how much funding or support they are giving Scotland. There were reports in early spring that a video was being prepared to celebrate the strength of “Brand UK,” complete with soaring music and a list of achievements we have made as a country.

This will galvanize some committed No voters, but such an approach backfires with voters on the fence. These voters’ considerations are more hard-headed, based around the economy and their own livelihoods. They feel Scottish, not British, and no polished video is going to be persuade them otherwise. Indeed, the biggest hesitation about voting to remain in the union in our poll is the union itself — “U.K.,” “Westminster” and “government” were the most cited words in response.

This is not to say that emotional messaging should be dropped altogether, as there is an opportunity to frame a message of unity around the pandemic. In fact, one of the most effective messages for the No campaign was “as we come out of the pandemic, we need to unite together as much as possible.” But this should be framed as a unity of people, rather than a unity of nations — the latter falls flat with the most important audience. 

2. Focus on the economy — but replace Project Fear with Project Unknown

If patriotism is not the union’s trump card, the economy is.

It is the primary hesitation that swing voters have about voting Yes and they feel they will be better off under the union. 

However, the same voters are extremely sensitive to anything that looks like scaremongering by the No side, dubbed “Project Fear” during the previous independence referendum and the Brexit vote. The least effective reason to vote to remain in the U.K. is “Scotland would not be able to use the pound if it became independent” (-12 net agreement), the very line that former Chancellor George Osborne used six years ago.

Rather than paint pictures of dire economic consequences, the union side should instead show that the future would be unknown and uncertain. The most effective message for the union with swing voters was: “An independent Scotland is a step into the unknown” (+55 net agreement). 

And on the European Union, there are serious cracks in the Yes campaign’s armor. Focus groups reveal that many leaning towards independence assume that Scotland will be able to re-join the EU without membership of the euro. No one is making the argument that this is not the case, but if a committed campaign made this point, one of the strongest arguments for independence could unravel. 

3. Labour must take a leading role

More than one in five voters who backed Labour in the U.K.’s 2019 general election currently say they will vote Yes in an independence referendum. This is an indictment of the role the Labour leadership have played in Scotland over the last few years, and its most recent leadership in Scotland under Richard Leonard.

But there is an acceptance of Labour figures north of the border, especially among undecided voters. The Labour Party itself, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, current Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and former Chancellor Alastair Darling all rate positively amongst voters yet to make up their mind, and their voices will be crucial — as they were last time — in bringing wavering Labour voters back to the union fold. 

4. Boris Johnson should stay away — show off Rishi Sunak and Ruth Davidson

Much of the current lead for independence relies on the strength of Sturgeon’s brand and the toxicity of Johnson’s. The latter was an electoral liability there in December 2019, and since the pandemic struck that has now increased by several orders of magnitude. In focus groups he is not just criticized in the way his predecessors David Cameron and Theresa May were, but loathed. 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak and former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson still poll well. The chancellor has a net rating of +30 with Scottish swing voters, higher than Keir Starmer, Gordon Brown, Alex Ferguson, and even the Queen. Davidson has lost some of her popularity since she stepped down, but still gets a positive rating. No. 10 should lock away Boris, and make this the Rishi and Ruth show, alongside current Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross to boost his profile.

5. Delay a referendum, but do not refuse it

Many in Conservative circles still say there will not be a referendum because the prime minister will refuse one since there was a vote only six years ago. This is No. 10’s current line when asked by the media. 

In the event of an SNP majority in May, there is a good argument to engage in talks on timetabling a referendum, but to line this up for 2024 or beyond. Such a move, if framed in the right way, could have support. “Having a referendum during the coronavirus pandemic would be wrong” is the most effective argument against a vote anytime soon, with net agreement of +48.

To timetable a referendum until Brexit is less of a pressing issue, when Sturgeon’s popularity is no longer at an all-time high, and when there may even be someone else in Downing Street, is probably the union’s best chance of winning a future vote.

But a straight refusal to a referendum request in the event of an SNP majority would be a serious error. It would drive up support for independence and for Sturgeon amongst swing and undecided voters. Johnson’s current line that the last vote was a once in a generation question falls flat in focus groups, and half of swing voters reject the line that it is currently too soon to have another vote. But delaying a referendum can be sold as sensible to voters, even if Sturgeon opposes such a move.

So, Scotland seems very different from what I heard in the front rooms I traversed in 2017. The union case is still winnable but it is no longer enough for the U.K. government to say “now is not the time.” Scotland increasingly expects another say on their future. Those who want to save the union should start readying for battle.