Tehran, Iran – Five years ago, President Donald Trump showed before the White House cameras a signed executive order announcing a unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement that the United States had signed in 2015 with Iran and world powers.
Despite years of efforts, and after many ups and downs, the landmark agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not been reinstated, contributing to rising tensions across the region.
The numerous designations of Iranian entities and institutions by the Trump administration, specifically targeting making it difficult for his successor Joe Biden to make amends, worked in tandem with a changing political climate to prevent a restored JCPOA.
The then-US president had argued that the deal was not doing enough to prevent Tehran from permanently acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Trump gloated at undoing one of the most important foreign policy achievements of his predecessor, Barack Obama.
His administration laid out a dozen conditions for renegotiating a more favorable deal for Washington with Tehran, which would effectively amount to full political capitulation by Iran.
Unsurprisingly, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has chosen a path of “resistance” in the face of Trump, whose corpse he said will “feed worms and rodents” as it will put his perceived desire to overthrow Iran to the grave. the Islamic Republic.
The so-called “maximum pressure” policy of the Trump administration, which included the imposition of the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, has significantly affected the Iranian economy ever since. The Biden administration has continued his predecessor’s policies on Iran despite initially denouncing them.
Runaway inflation continues to put pressure on average Iranians and the national currency has been in a downward spiraleven as Tehran has gradually increased its oil sales despite sanctions.
Iranian leaders, however, have not given up their doctrine of defying the US, and attacks by pro-Iranian groups on US interests across the region have only multiplied in recent years, according to Washington. .
The US assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in early 2020 brought tensions to new heights, with Tehran and Washington. teetering on the brink of war.
Most recently, Iran seized two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in the last two weeks, which Western media say came in response to the US seizure of another tanker carrying Iranian oil.
Meanwhile, President Ebrahim Raisi made the first trip by an Iranian president to Syria in 13 years last week, with Iranian state media. hailing it as a “strategic victory” for Iran in the face of US defeats.
JCPOA in the region
Since its inception, Israel has been the JCPOA’s biggest enemy, relentlessly pressing Washington to declare the deal dead.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump after his breach of the deal, and Tel Aviv has repeatedly lobbied against efforts by other signatories, namely China, Russia, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, to restore the deal through talks now stalled which started in 2021.
Israel has also warned that it will attack Iran to prevent it from acquiring a bomb, and Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said last week that the US president is willing to recognize Israel’s “freedom of action” if necessary.
The comment sparked anger in Tehran, prompting security chief Ali Shamkhani to see it as an admission of US responsibility for Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities and nuclear scientists.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, many Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, also applauded Trump and expressed concern about Tehran’s nuclear program, which it maintains is strictly peaceful, and its support for proxies across the region.
But as Tehran also increased the pressure, and as the United States gradually saw its role in the region diminished, Arab leaders recognized the need for change.
He 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities by Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, and the subsequent lack of response from Washington, appeared to be a turning point for Arab nations.
After two years of direct talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in March to restore diplomatic relations in a Chinese-brokered deal, with embassies expected to reopen this week.
More challenges ahead
At least for now, JCPOA stakeholders appear content to maintain the status quo while managing tensions.
the step of two resolutions introduced by the West last year at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board that censured Iran, and Tehran’s response, and a deadlock in talks since September have not led either side to declare the JCPOA dead in the absence of a best alternative for the deal.
However, the fate of the deal promises to produce more clashes between Tehran and the West in the coming months.
Western parties have reportedly already warned Iran that if further increases its uranium enrichment at levels that could potentially be used to produce a bomb, it will prompt them to activate the deal’s so-called “rollback” mechanism that will automatically reinstate United Nations sanctions against Iran.
Iran and the IAEA reached an agreement in Tehran in March to increase cooperation, which could potentially prevent another resolution at the nuclear watchdog’s next board meeting in June.
Another major deadline comes in October when the JCPOA is set to lift a series of restrictions on Iran’s research, development and production of long-range missiles and drones.
With Israel also pushing for a recovery and the West accusing Tehran of selling armed drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine, the parties concerned will have a hard time managing tensions in the coming months.