Updated ,first published
Tel Aviv: Israelis have begun voting in an election widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s almost two decades in power, with the prospect of a return to war with Iran dominating the final days of the campaign.
Voting began early on Tuesday in Israel (4pm AEDT) in the first national elections since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, a day that shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Netanyahu’s hold on power is at stake, with centrist rivals promising to usher in a new era, but the polls have shown a close result between the two blocs, and it may take time before clear results are known.
Israeli media reports passed by the official military censor and published in the final days of the campaign have stated that Netanyahu pressured his military chief to provoke a confrontation with Iran ahead of the elections, suggesting high-level leaks from within the defence establishment. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz denied the reports.
US President Donald Trump told Fox News on the weekend he was deciding whether to “make a deal” with Iran or “finish it off”, adding: “It’s getting to be decision time.”
Netanyahu posted an alarming AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv and spoke about using cryptocurrency to avoid international sanctions in the final days of the campaign.
Some disunity broke out within the opposition bloc before polls closed over the question of whether anti-Netanyahu voters should vote for former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party or spread their votes among the four parties in the bloc.
Eisenkot has been pursuing a so-called “big party” strategy in recent days, designed to give him the upper-hand in post-election negotiations by scoring a lead over Netanyahu’s Likud in the final seat tally.
“The ‘big party’ campaign is a mistake,” Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democrats party, said. “It’s a dangerous lie designed to weaken us. I urge people not to fall for the ‘big party’ narrative.”
What happens on election day?
Voting in Israel is voluntary, not compulsory. Even so, turnout is usually high, reflecting the level of political engagement in society. In the last elections, 4.8 million of the country’s 6.8 million eligible voters showed up at the polls – a turnout rate of 71 per cent. Even more people are expected to vote this year, reflecting the heightened stakes.
Unlike in Australia, where postal voting has become increasingly popular in recent elections, Israelis must vote in person on election day. (Only those serving their nation overseas, like diplomats and defence personnel, can vote in advance by mail.)
When will we know who won?
It is likely this will be known within a few hours of polls closing, but it could take days or even weeks to become clear.
The first strong indication of the results will come at 10pm (6am Wednesday AEDT), when Israeli TV channels begin airing exit polls. The official election results will then start coming in.
A clear picture may emerge quickly, but if no party or group of parties has a clear parliamentary majority, it could take much longer.
The final tally is expected by October 30 and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on November 4.
Why is it so complicated?
Elections to the 120-seat Knesset are meant to be held every four years, but early elections have been frequent.
Crucially, voters vote for party lists rather than individual candidates. The Knesset seats are allocated by proportional representation to national party lists, with parties needing to pass a threshold of 3.25 per cent of the national vote to secure seats.
About a dozen parties are widely thought to have a chance of crossing the threshold, so the final tally and seat allocation will take time.
The key number to aim for is the 61 seats required to form a government, though leaders prefer a more substantial buffer to create a more durable coalition. It is possible to govern in minority, but such a government would be even more fragile.
What happens after the results are published?
After the final tally is in, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
That nominee has up to 42 days to form a government.
No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties, and negotiations on forming a government often take weeks. Every Knesset seat counts, and small parties can have a big impact by becoming kingmakers.
If the nominee fails, others can get a chance to try. If no government emerges, another election is called, with the present cabinet staying on as a caretaker government.
Read more on Israel’s election:
Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X, Facebook or email.From our partners
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