French Greens risk extinction. That could benefit von der Leyen.

But the Greens group’s two largest delegations have different political cultures. The Grünen have been part of Germany’s ruling coalition since 2021, and are shifting toward more pragmatic positions, while the Greens in France remain an opposition party.

That gulf has previously led to mutual friction on international trade deals, the extension of the EU’s carbon market to fuel for cars and boilers, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

“In the context of this new narrative, focusing more on industrial development, decarbonization, competitiveness, sovereignty … the German Greens will be much more comfortable than the French ones for sure” given their experience of governing, said Antoine Oger, research director at the Institute for European Environmental Policy, a Brussels-based think tank.

Mélanie Vogel, a French Greens senator and co-president of the European Green Party, told POLITICO the European Greens haven’t yet decided whether to back von der Leyen. “There will be a group position that will be chosen democratically,” she said — that’s true regardless of whether any French Greens are elected to serve in the EP next term.

Smaller delegations, including that of Dutch Greens heavyweight Bas Eickhout — who is set to co-lead the group in the Parliament with Reintke in the next term — are also expected to play a central role in this decision.

On the campaign trail

The French Greens campaign is seen as too focused on divisive social issues that have failed to gain broad traction, and hasn’t managed to elevate climate change to the status of a core issue in the EU election.