German elections: Vote to replace Angela Merkel produces a near-tie

“This is going to be a long election evening, that is certain. But it is also certain that many put their cross by the SPD because they want the next chancellor of Germany to be called Olaf Scholz.”

Unlike Australia, Germany is almost always ruled by coalition governments, which are usually led by the CDU or SPD with the support of smaller parties.

Neither major party will be happy with their result. Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent, noted the combined vote for the two major parties had fallen from 78 per cent in 1994 to as little as 50 per cent now.

The Greens will play a central role in the upcoming negotiations after securing a record-high 15 per cent of the vote on Sunday – although that result was well down on the polling highs it achieved during the campaign.

One option for a new coalition government was one made up of the SPD, Greens and pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP). Scholz would replace Merkel as chancellor and the environment, transport and even foreign ministries could go to The Greens.

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Another option is for the CDU to remain in power with the support of the Greens and FDP. The FDP’s political philosophy is a closer fit to the CDU than the SPD.

The FDP’s leader, Christian Lindner, said: “The election result is not easy to read. None of the former popular parties has more than 25 to 26 per cent of the vote. So 75 per cent of Germans didn’t vote for the party that will provide the next chancellor.”

The negotiations will run for weeks and may even take months. If the talks extend to December, Merkel would overtake her mentor Helmut Kohl for the title of postwar Germany’s longest-serving chancellor.

While The Greens performed well on Sunday, analysts cautioned against interpreting the national poll as a swing to the left. The SPD’s result was an improvement on its dismal performance at the 2017 election but still well short of what it could once be expected to achieve.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took about 11 per cent of the national vote but attracted much stronger support in parts of the country’s east. The CDU and SPD have both ruled out asking the AfD to be in a coalition.

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