‘Greenlash’ fuels fears over Europe’s environmental ambitions

BERLIN/BRUSSELS, Aug 10 (Reuters) – A growing ‘green tear’ against Europe’s environmental agenda has so far not derailed its decarbonisation plans, but upcoming elections could put future climate and environmental measures at risk.

The European Union (EU) has honed its role as a leader on climate change, enshrining carbon reduction targets in law and propose policies to reduce emissions this decade.

And so far, the impact of the ecological reaction is limited, say politicians and analysts, because most of Europe’s major CO2 reduction policies are set in law.

But as policymakers seek to translate net-zero emissions goals into measures that extend beyond power generation to areas like buildings and transportation, they are facing increasing resistance as citizens wrestle with the cost of living crisis.

Anguish over a law to eliminate oil and gas heating brought Germany’s ruling coalition to the brink of breakdown, while in the Netherlands, anger Plans to reduce nitrogen pollution led to a stunning poll victory for a new farmers’ protest party.

Analysts say politicians are increasingly seizing on concerns about the cost of green policies ahead of EU, national and regional elections over the next year and a half.

“These are definitely different circumstances than in 2019 when we started with this maximum support and political will to act from … all parties,” European environment commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius told Reuters.

Politicians need to take into account polls showing that a large majority of citizens are concerned about climate change and the strong business interests behind the green transition.

“We have this stable majority that supports the green deal,” he said, referring to the level of support in the European Parliament for the EU’s overall green agenda.

“But then we come to more difficult files (EU legal proposals) where I think, inevitably, they are heavily affected by the political debate,” Sinkevicius added.

As a result, officials say it is getting harder to pass green laws, and some EU governments are resisting new emission limits for automobiles and seeking to weaken pollution controls to cattle farms. A proposal to improve the energy efficiency of buildings faces pushback from cost-conscious countries.

The Polish government, which is facing elections in October, is even suing Brussels on climate policies.

“Does the EU want to make authoritative decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive?” asked his climate and environment minister, Anna Moskwa, last month.

Nature conservation measures face even greater opposition than decarbonization measures due to lobbying by the powerful agricultural sector and a lack of strong commercial incentives for change, said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian international relations think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali. .

Although a recent Campaign by the center-right European People’s Party, the largest group in the European Parliament, to kill off a bill to restore damaged environments that failed, the proposal looks set to be watered down.

“The European Parliament elections next year will be very decisive if we look ahead, because the center-right group is becoming more negative towards green policies,” said Mats Engström of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

GREEN INVESTOR TRUST

Another concern is the impact on Europe’s diplomatic standing and investor confidence as the United States offers multi-billion dollar green subsidies and tax breaks.

“It’s a bit ironic that Europe is having these problems when the United States has finally gotten its act together,” said Bob Ward, director of policy and communications at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the School of Economics and Political Science London. .

Ward said Europe risks falling behind India and China in establishing green industries and technologies.

Last year, India increased solar capacity by 28%, outpacing the capacity growth of the European heavyweights.

“If Europe falters, it will allow other countries to tap into international markets for electric vehicles and other technologies,” Ward said.

Britain has already quickly gone from being a leader on the world stage to looking rather weak on green policies, he said.

Britain climate advisors It said in June that the country is not doing enough to reach its target of net zero emissions by 2050, while a government-commissioned review found that companies complained about weaknesses in Britain’s investment environment.

Progress in UK onshore and offshore wind has been hampered by rule changes, for example causing some developers to warn that they will have a hard time investing without better incentives.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who faces elections in 18 months, warned last month of climate policies that “unnecessarily give people more hassle and more cost.”

CITIZENS, COMPANIES

Europe’s green policies remain more credible than those of the US, given the to-and-fro between US election cycles, some analysts said.

But EU politicians will need to address more concerns from citizens and businesses if they are to maintain support while legislating in sectors that affect them.

Dutch Minister for Climate and Energy Policy Rob Jetten told Reuters in June that the main challenge for the next few years was for politicians to show that the green transition was fair too, with support available to those who needed it.

Disputes over green policies have pushed right-wing populist parties to second place in Dutch and German polls.

The German heating law debacle underscored the importance of ensuring green laws allowed for the transition without overwhelming anyone, said Nina Scheer, climate protection spokeswoman for the Social Democrat rulers in parliament.

“Otherwise, citizens could start to feel that climate policy is always financially overwhelming and bad, and populists exploit that sentiment.”

Crafting a strong green industrial policy is key, said Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank.

“If we don’t create green jobs in Europe, if we don’t make sure that we have these industrial and economic opportunities, we will be in trouble,” Tagliapietra said.

Reporting by Kate Abnett in Brussels, Sarah Marsh in Berlin and Gloria Dickie in London; Additional reporting by Anthony Deutsch in Amsterdam, Angelo Amante in Rome, Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw, Susanna Twidale and William James in London; Edited by Alexander Smith

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