Heatwave till July 2nd week, IMD points to ‘monsoon break’

The progress of the monsoon has stalled since June 19, leaving many parts of the country experiencing deficient rainfall. This monsoon “break” is likely to continue till the second week of July, as is the heatwave currently affecting parts of north western and central India, IMD officials said on Thursday.

“Till the time that the monsoon break happened, the monsoon had already covered most parts of the country, except parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. We have not witnessed any progress of the monsoon since June 19. Gradually, monsoon activity reduced over the country and became weak, and this is likely to continue till the second week of July. From July 7, there is likely to be some improvement, and then in the third and fourth week of July things will normalise,” IMD director-general Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

“While such monsoon breaks are not common… there have been records of this in the past. For every monsoon forecast there is a standard deviation of a week, and there are records of monsoon breaks which can take place up to 10-12 days.”

Mid-latitude westerly winds, an unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the absence of the formation of low-pressure systems over the north Bay of Bengal are some of the reasons why the progress of the monsoons has stalled, Mohapatra said.

Mohapatra said the monsoon “break” is likely to impact agricultural operations like sowing and transplantation of crops, irrigation scheduling and power requirement. “Early sown crops will require protective irrigation or to conserve soil moisture to prevent evaporation losses,” he said.