Two weeks after there was bipartisan relief that an economically disastrous government debt default had been avoidedthere is growing concern on Capitol Hill about whether the government can stay open after September.
A government shutdown would shut down many parts of the government considered non-essential, but would keep some vital functions intact, such as defense.
Politically, he would be a wild card heading into the 2024 election. In the past, presidents have typically won such matchups, often because they are seen as taking on Congress and have the largest bullying pulpit in the form of from the White House.
The House Appropriations Committee, the panel that decides which agency or program gets how much in each year’s so-called discretionary spending budget, met early Friday and may have set the stage for a subsequent explosion by approve expense numbers that Democrats say they are breaking promises made during the debt limit talks.
“If we disregard the law of the land, we almost guarantee an October shutdown,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the appropriations committee, told the committee in an unusually sharp rebuke for a panel. . considered one of the most bipartisan in Congress.
“If we ignore the law of the land, we almost guarantee a shutdown in October.”
– Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.)
Bills that finance the government must be passed by September 30, or the government loses power. The debt limit was supposed to answer one big question: how much to spend next year.
In the debt deal, the two sides agreed on general figures that would serve as a ceiling for discretionary spending: $1.59 trillion for next year, with $886.3 billion for defense and $703.7 billion for non-defense.
To the chagrin of Democrats, Republican appropriators on Thursday chose a lower total number ($1.47 trillion, the number used for 2022 discretionary spending) as their spending target.
To complicate matters, they kept the defense number in the debt limit deal, meaning the total government funding pie would be smaller than what Democrats thought they agreed to just weeks ago: and the slice of that pie available to agencies and programs outside of the military would be even smaller.
Because appropriators have historically treated the cap as well as the floor, Democrats say they have been betrayed.
“What the hell is the point of making a deal if they then tell you, ‘Oh, that was the ceiling of the deal, what we really want is a lot less’? Because? Because 20 people are holding us captive,” Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said at a committee meeting Wednesday night.
“It’s wrong,” Hoyer said. “We shouldn’t be doing it that way.”
“What the hell is the use of making a deal if they then tell you, ‘Oh, that was the ceiling of the deal, what we really want is a lot less’?”
– Representative Steny Hoyer (D-Md.)
The 20 people Hoyer referred to are hardline House Republicans. who lobbied House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to return to 2022 numbers as the price for allowing the bills to hit the House floor after a showdown last week.
Given the slim GOP majority in the House, McCarthy can only lose four Republicans and still pass bills with no Democratic votes, and according to Appropriations Committee figures, the cuts to non-military programs would be so deep that it is unlikely that they can. pass the House on a party line basis.
At the same time, within the House Republican conference, there is an appetite for bigger cuts. The conservative Republican Study Committee, the largest intrapartisan group in the House Republican Party, released its own budget plan on Wednesday. That document calls for just $522 billion in non-defense spending, even below the non-defense cap approved in the appropriations committee.
And unlike the debt-limit episode, the Democrats are unlikely to try to bail the Republicans out of the quagmire, which could leave the House GOP in a dilemma before September 30: accept the funding figures submitted by the Democratic-controlled Senate, accept a temporary stopgap. bill until things are resolved, or let the government shut down.
While accepting the Senate’s proposed funding plan would keep the lights on, it would mean House members’ ideas about how the money should be spent, boosting some programs and cutting others, would likely be ignored.
“I hope it’s not 99% of what the Senate sends that we end up voting on,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.). “I hope we are equal partners in this. I’m not optimistic.”
House Appropriations Chair Kay Granger (R-Texas) said the numbers approved Thursday simply reflect Republicans’ desire to refocus spending on defense, veterans and homeland security.
“The allocations before us reflect the change that members on my side of the aisle want to see in bringing spending back to responsible levels,” he said.
On Monday, McCarthy played down the possibility of a shutdown, even as the deal with hardliners he touted seemed to increase the chances of one.
“You always come with the negative. You have to be more positive in life,” she said, when asked if she had traded avoiding default for potential closure.
“We keep working forward,” he said. “We are having good successes here. I keep you in my prayers.”
With the fiscal year ending September 30 and the House out for six weeks in August and September, there are only 28 business days left for the House to see if McCarthy’s optimism is warranted.
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