Pakistan has fallen into geopolitical oblivion. This, despite its important geostrategic location, its large population -the major fifth in the world: a powerful army, nuclear weapons and semi-industrial economy. It staggers from crisis to crisis and is close to becoming a non-player on the world stage.
There are four main reasons for its lesser geopolitical relevance: shifting geopolitical currents, internal instability in Pakistan, the rise of India, and China’s indifference.
Shifting Geopolitical Currents
Much of Pakistan’s utility a decade ago derived from its location between India, China, Iran and Afghanistan. While the United States was involved in Afghanistan, Pakistan was a vital partner, providing access to landlocked Afghanistan. With the US withdrawal, Pakistan’s role as a conduit for the US in Afghanistan has ended. Afghanistan is now mainly Pakistan’s problem.
Likewise, Iran, despite its regional influence, remains isolated and under sanctions. Much of the economic and cultural development in the Middle East has bypassed Iran and gone to the Gulf region, with the United Arab Emirates and now Saudi Arabia courting investment and seeking to emerge as global powers in fields as diverse as museums. and sports. The Arab countries of the Middle East can trade with the West, India and China largely by sea, further diminishing the geographical utility of Iran and Pakistan. Given the relatively small markets of the Central Asian states, the instability in Afghanistan and developmental problems From the port of Gwadar on Pakistan’s Indian Ocean coast, Pakistan can gain little from its position as the land link between Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. In addition, the border between Pakistan and Iran, which covers the area ravaged by the insurgency Balochistan region, it is not a center of connectivity and stability.
This leaves India and China. Due to the unique nature of Indo-Pakistani relations, Pakistan’s location is of little use to India; Pakistan is seen as a barrier to be overcome. The vast majority – 95 percent by volume, India’s trade is by sea. China’s equation with Pakistan is much better, but most of China’s population and economic output is in eastern China and uses the Pacific coast for trade, while its land trade with Europe and Central Asia passes by Kazakhstan and Russia. There is a lot Pakistan can do for China.
Chinese indifference
While China and Pakistan have a close relationship, both sides have recognized the limitations of what each can do for each other. Pakistan has continued to cultivate links with other powers, including the United States, Russia and Middle East countries. This is partly because the country has been looking to diversify its economic partnerships in light of a economic crisis that has lasted for more than a year, exacerbated by political instability and loan from China.
Pakistan’s political and military culture is heavily influenced by the West, rather than China, limiting the degree to which its elites can connect with China. Meanwhile, China’s geopolitical concerns remain oriented to its east, toward Taiwan, Japan, the South China Sea, and the US naval presence in the region, not its remote western border.
While Beijing is investing around $62 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), this is just one of many initiatives it is currently undertaking around the world as part of its Belt and Loop Initiative. the route. While CPEC was supposed to be a game changer for Pakistan, many of its projects they have stagnated due to economic instability in Pakistan, China’s own economic slowdown, and chronic violence in some parts of Pakistan. It will take decades for the project to generate useful returns for China, and even then, China’s economic and strategic relationships with other countries will likely be more important than its relationship with Pakistan. Although China has cultivated Pakistan in the context of its own rivalry with India, it may ultimately choose to work more closely with India, despite that ongoing rivalry, to enhance stability across South Asia and pursue goals common through global forums.
Internal instability in Pakistan
It is true that population and economy are not everything, and countries can weigh more or less than their international weight depending on how well they use their diplomatic, economic and military influence. However, this requires political and economic stability, something that Pakistan does not have. There is nothing as useful as a government promoting its own interests on the global stage. For example, the Narendra Modi government in India constantly talks about India, urges companies to invest in India, and talks about India’s role in the world.
Since the overthrow of Imran Khan’s power in a vote of no confidence In April 2022, Pakistan experienced political instability, which exacerbated its economic crisis. Khan and his supporters have participated in protests, which have sometimes scaled in violence ever since. While the unrest has subsided substantially with Khan’s arrest and an interim government in place until the election, uncertainty remains over when the election will take place and the role of the military in the current setup.
Its opaque political situation makes it difficult for foreign countries to decide which actors within Pakistan to interact with and to what extent they should. Even if the military controls politics, a civilian government is still their front, even though there is often no point in collaborating with civilian government. As various civilian factions and political parties continue to compete with each other and against the military, and as the economic crisis continues, Pakistan remains unstable and self-absorbed.
Such a country, with this level of chronic instability, can hardly implement the necessary economic policies, prioritize growth, serve as a stable partner for other countries, or promote its own interests internationally. It can hardly articulate a vision of its own geopolitical goals and take advantage of its location and resources. Compared to its neighbors and other countries with similar populations, military capabilities, and resources, such as Turkey, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, Pakistan is totally stagnant.
the rise of india
In recent years, there is no doubt that India has hit the world stage in a big way. In the past, India has often been in brackets with Pakistan in foreign contexts, especially on the Kashmir issue and in nuclear proliferation discussions. The United States and other world powers attempted to mitigate instability in South Asia by compromising on the Indo-Pakistan relationship, particularly as the West was then heavily involved in Afghanistan and Pakistan was a major ally and battleground in the now-forgotten global war against The terrorism. . This fueled the perception in the West that India and Pakistan were more or less similar in terms of power and importance, but that is no longer the case. In fact, it never was: India’s economy is Eight times Pakistan’s size and population are at least seven times larger, but perception has now caught up with reality.
India is widely recognized as a leading world power with influence in big clubs like the G-20 and the recently expanded BRICS, and in countries ranging from Greece, France, Saudi Arabiaand the USA. Today, India is more often than not in brackets with Porcelainnot Pakistan.
Unfortunately for Pakistan, there is little it can do to match this, economically or militarily. In a world that has come to focus on economic growth and development and old-fashioned great power politics, any militancy and terrorism emanating from Pakistan would do it no favors, and appears to have done so. exhausted the goodwill of many of his friends in the Middle East with his incessant need for bailouts.
Pakistan already has little military leverage vis-à-vis India, but now it has even less diplomatic leverage, as fewer countries care enough to continue pandering to Kashmir or India, when ultimately what they really want is for Pakistan to get your own house in order.
These factors, working together, reinforce the fact that Pakistan has become geopolitically irrelevant rather quickly. It will take a lot of time and effort, and most of all, a competent and stable government and political system, to reverse this process.
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