How important is Captagon in al-Assad’s return to the Arab fold?

From changing regional dynamics to the desire to end a refugee crisis, a variety of factors have contributed to Syria and President Bashar al-Assad’s return to the Arab fold.

But a narcotic substance has also been increasingly at the center of the problem. Syria is by far the world’s largest producer of Captagonan addictive amphetamine-type stimulant pill that is smuggled into countries throughout the region.

Captagon was the trade name for a psychoactive drug produced in the 1960s in Germany that was later outlawed worldwide.

Now it fuels party scenes in the Middle East, but also, for years, provided a crucial financial lifeline for al-Assad, who became increasingly isolated after the events that led to the civil war in Syria more than a decade ago. .

Al-Assad naturally denies any organized effort by his government to profit from drugs, but observers say he has turned Syria into a narco-state, raking in billions of dollars each year from a business believed to be worth several times that value. of all the operations of the infamous cartels in Mexico.

It came as no surprise that the Syrian president did not publicly discuss drug trafficking when received a warm welcome in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah on Friday and took part in the 32nd Arab League summit shortly after his country’s re-acceptance to the regional bloc.

But Amman said that Syria has agreed to fight drug trafficking across its borders with Jordan and Iraq following a meeting of foreign ministers earlier this month to discuss normalizing ties with Damascus.

Days after Jordan warned that it is ready to “do whatever it takes to counter the threat” of drug smuggling, an airstrike on Syrian soil killed notorious Syrian drug lord Marai al-Ramthan. jordan is believed to have been behind the attackalthough he did not officially confirm it.

cosmetic seizures

According to Caroline Rose, a Captagon researcher and director of the US-based New Lines Institute, the drug trade did not spark Saudi-led normalization efforts with Syria, but it has become a top item on the agenda. , since it represents a feasible point of collaboration.

“The Syrian regime has already made a series of cosmetic seizures to build goodwill with various Arab governments. They want to be seen as a country that could intercept Captagon if they are persuaded and incentivized to do so, particularly with sanctions relief and economic packages,” he told Al Jazeera.

At least on the surface, Rose said he expects to see an increase in Captagon seizures and more coverage in the Syrian state-controlled media in an effort to draw attention to Damascus’ efforts to crack down on the drug trade.

“I also think they will expose a number of traffickers who are not very aligned with the regime but who are perceived or named as potential contributors,” he said, adding that he did not think authorities would touch some of the main alleged sponsors. of trade, especially those like al-Assad’s cousin, Wasim Badi al-Assad, who was sanctioned by the United States and the European Union last month.

“I also think the regime is very much using this as its own political card in normalization discussions, essentially acknowledging the fact that they have agency over trade and using it as a primary tactic to encourage countries to pay them in exchange for them cracking down. ”

Meanwhile, just since the end of April, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Iraq have announced multiple seizures consisting of tens of millions of Syrian-manufactured Captagon pills, estimated to have a street value of over $1 billion.

However, they have not publicly blamed the al-Assad government after the seizures as normalization efforts have accelerated.

Taking advantage of Captagon

The only way to steer al-Assad and Syria away from this illegal trade is to allow him to resume legal trade, otherwise he will have no incentive to forgo the considerable revenue from Syria’s biggest export, according to Joshua Landis, director of the Center. Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

“Assad has already been taking advantage of the Captagon trade. It is one of the main reasons why Jordan decided that the status quo did not work and was unsustainable. The same is true for Saudi Arabia,” he told Al Jazeera.

Landis said that while many believed al-Assad had been “broken down” by civil war, sanctions, the partitioning of the country and the denial of access to Syrian oil and gas, Captagon’s trade shows that he must not be ignored. and can deal damage, allowing you to command a higher price to stop smuggling.

“For Assad, giving up income from drugs, which is Syria’s largest export, will require the restoration of the legitimate trade. He will demand the lifting of the sanctions and the return of the land from him,” Landis said.

The United States and the EU, however, have said will refuse to normalize relations with Syria in the absence of a fair electoral process in accordance with a United Nations resolution. Last week, a bipartisan group in the US House of Representatives introduced a bill to prevent normalization.

Meanwhile, in the region, Qatar and several other Arab nations continue to oppose Syria’s reintegration without conditions, but have chosen not to block its acceptance into the Arab League.

Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute, sees Syria’s return to the Arab League after a 12-year hiatus as an unconditional victory for al-Assad, at least for the moment.

“Arab states have little leverage over Assad because they have other national and regional priorities to address and divert resources from, from economic growth to stability in their immediate neighborhoods.

“They also cannot rely on US backing for Assad, as the US has generally disengaged from the Syrian conflict,” he said.

Khatib believes that al-Assad is unlikely to resign from Captagon.

“The most Arab countries can hope for in this regard,” he said, “is that regime elements involved in the Captagon trade can divert some of it to markets outside the Arab world to reduce the flow of the drug to the countries arabs. .”