Updated ,first published
Thirty years after Pauline Hanson first exploded onto the national stage railing against immigration, globalisation and a political class she said had abandoned ordinary Australians, her party has finally broken through.
One Nation’s win forces a sharper question inside the Coalition about whether the Farrer byelection result is simply a protest vote or the start of something more enduring in regional Australia.
In a once-safe Coalition stronghold in the southern Riverina, the result has exposed unease about whether conservative voters are simply venting in a byelection or steadily shifting allegiance in places that were long considered political bedrock.
Internally, Coalition figures are urging caution. Byelections are volatile contests where voters can express frustration without changing government. Some also point to former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s departure as a local destabiliser that amplified the swing.
But others are less convinced it can be contained.
Since Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan stepped into senior leadership roles, much of their focus has been on trying to win back conservative voters drifting to Hanson. On the evidence from Farrer, that effort has not stopped the leakage.
The Liberal and National parties that had held the seat since 1949 were reduced to just over 20 per cent of the primary vote combined. The question is whether this is isolated or already moving through regional Australia.
In Oaklands, a tiny grain town with a population of barely 300 that’s 105 kilometres north-west of Albury, Hanson’s political breakthrough was measured almost vote by vote. But the shift was not sudden, it had built slowly.
A year ago, One Nation recorded 13 per cent there – already the strongest booth result in the electorate, but still marginal. On Saturday, that became overwhelming: of 177 formal votes, 123 went to One Nation’s David Farley as No.1. His primary vote reached 69.9 per cent, rising to 77.97 per cent two-candidate preferred.
Drive through Oaklands and the political story is less ideology than disappearance.
The rail line beyond Boree Creek went a few decades ago. The publican recently walked away from the only hotel after years of pressure, saying “all country pubs are struggling”. Nearby towns have lost pubs entirely.
Residents talk about losing banks nearby, services and local authority. The forced council amalgamation that folded the former Urana Shire into Federation Council still rankles.
Nothing disappeared at once. That is the point locals return to – decline as accumulation, not collapse. Governments of all stripes and persuasions have watched over it.
Standing outside Oaklands Public School after voting, general store owner Craig Jennings said communities felt politically stranded.
“It’s become a bit of a uni party,” he said. “Nothing seems to change.”
He and his partner, Trish Brown, said the major parties were largely absent from town life. Brown said they had once voted Labor.
“They did nothing for us. They left us out to dry.”
Now, she said, Hanson had become the only politician who spoke plainly to their experience.
“She’s always said what we believed,” Brown said.
During conversations in Oaklands, concern about younger generations was a constant – whether their children would have the same chances to get ahead, or whether opportunity had narrowed compared with the past.
Leanne Patterson said she worried about her grandchildren’s future.
“I dread to see what it’s going to be like,” she said.
Amanda Preedy said voters felt ignored.
“I don’t think we’ve seen any of the other candidates out here this way … except for One Nation,” she said.
Brett Fodder, a recreational hunter, said rural realities were often misunderstood, particularly when it came to gun law legislation introduced earlier this year.
“It was rushed,” he says. “They’re not thinking about us out here. People in the cities don’t understand the sight of hundreds of kangaroos lined up ruining crops, or rabbits and foxes.”
The pattern extends beyond Oaklands.
One Nation’s strongest results were concentrated in older inland towns that have lost population or economic momentum – Deniliquin, Finley, Jerilderie, Hay and Corowa. These are places marked by ageing populations, thinner services and a sense of long-term decline.
By contrast, larger regional centres such as Albury, Griffith and Leeton held up better for Climate 200-supported independent Michelle Milthorpe, with more diverse economies and younger populations. But they’re not the fortresses against this kind of sentiment that they used to be.
And these conditions help explain why Hanson’s rise in Farrer cannot be reduced to a protest vote.
Across regional Australia the forces are structural, with weakening trust in institutions, resentment towards metropolitan politics, and a belief towns like this are not even managed let alone represented.
So where to next for the Coalition? Taylor and Canavan have sharpened rhetoric on net zero, immigration and cultural politics to stem the drift to Hanson.
Hanson’s campaign presence carried a different force – less policy than recognition. Even voters who backed Farley often framed their support through her.
For the Coalition, the dilemma is that mirroring Hanson may only reinforce her authenticity.
One Nation has historically struggled to sustain state lower-house breakthroughs beyond protest cycles, but dismissing Farrer would miss what Oaklands and similar towns are signalling. Loyalty towards the Coalition has broken down and populist politics has filled the gap.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan says the conservatives’ fight has to be against Labor. But he highlighted the circus surrounding Hanson and her associates as a reason why One Nation couldn’t really take on the ALP.
“One thing, I think that’s a little strange sometimes is the drama you get with One Nation,” he told reporters on Saturday. “We’ve had drama from One Nation for days … different views from different people, kicking people out of press conferences. I mean, do we want Drama Nation, or do you want One Nation?
“How are you going to take it up to the Labor Party, guys?”
What Hanson has achieved in Farrer was not just a seat but the consolidation of long-running regional grievance into parliamentary representation.
Whether it was an exception, or an early marker is the question hanging over the Coalition and Australian politics as a whole.
Rob Harris is the national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age based in Canberra. He is a former Europe correspondent.Connect via email.From our partners
Discover more from PressNewsAgency
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.