Tasmania’s entry into the AFL in 2028 will push competition among clubs for free agents to an all-time high next year, ahead of the most compromised national draft in the game’s history.
The Suns’ Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson, Giants pair Tom Green and Lachie Ash, the Hawks’ Will Day, Sydney’s Chad Warner, Port Adelaide’s Miles Bergman, Geelong’s Sam De Koning and the Lions’ Kai Lohmann will attract record offers topping $2 million per season from clubs unable to access top-end talent in next year’s national draft.
The market for second-tier free agents, such as Melbourne’s Trent Rivers and the Lions’ Keidean Coleman, will also be strong. Tasmania will also be seeking free agents and uncontracted players with the $5 million sign-on bonus they have to spend over two seasons.
The Devils’ list concessions combined with free agency, bespoke compensation for losing uncontracted players, and bids for priority-access players means teams that finish near the top of the ladder in 2027 will not have their first draft selections (barring a trade) until the mid-30s.
It’s why Port Adelaide are seeking multiple picks for the impending loss of Zak Butters to the Western Bulldogs.
Normally, a top-four team would expect to get its first-round selection in the mid-to-late teens.
The situation will not only put free agents in demand in 2027, but has clubs considering trading out pre-agents this year to improve their return, if they believe they are going to leave at the end of next year.
Three club officials, who preferred to remain anonymous when discussing trade matters, also expressed concerns for clubs struggling to be competitive who have not stockpiled young talent in recent seasons and battle to attract free agents. They referenced the effect the Suns and the Giants had on the competition in the mid-2010s when clubs such as Carlton, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions became stuck in the ladder’s lower reaches.
In explaining the reduced access to top-end talent, one source said, for example, that the team that finishes runner-up in 2027 will have their first natural selection at pick No.17 pushed back to No.34 once the Tasmania list concessions, compensation and bidding effect played out.
The Devils will start with Nos.1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 in the 2027 national draft. Even though they must trade four of those picks in the first two seasons, selections in the high teens, such as No.17, will still push back seven spots before compensation picks are inserted.
That pick will retreat another five or six selections due to free agency and bespoke compensation for uncontracted players traded to Tasmania.
If father-son and academy prospects, such as Koby Bewick, Louis Salopek, Tevita Rodan and Zemes Pilot, then attract first-round bids, the natural pick No.17 will move to become about pick No.34.
The value of that pick will be diluted even further as Tasmania pre-list about seven of the best players from the 2027 draft pool, meaning the runners-up’s first pick could end up giving them access to the 41st best player next year’s pool.
It also means that, if the runners-up lose a free agent and receive first-round compensation attached to their pick, the compensation selection might come as pick 35.
It will make matching bids for priority-access players more complicated and realising value for traded players challenging.
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