How the US could try to seize Iran’s Kharg Island – and why it might backfire

The United States could attempt to seize Iran’s Kharg Island through an amphibious assault or a combination of a Marine and airborne operation, said analysts, warning that any such move carries a high risk of failure and could potentially widen the war. 

The strategic island drifted back into the spotlight on Monday (Mar 30) after US President Donald Trump threatened to capture the island if no deal is reached. 

Located off the west coast of Iran, Kharg Island handles 90 per cent of the country’s oil exports, making it one of Tehran’s most critical economic lifelines. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

When asked about the state of Iranian defence on the island in a recent interview with the Financial Times, Trump said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

That assessment, analysts suggest, underestimated the challenges and the risks of escalation.

WASHINGTON’S CALCULUS

A move against Kharg Island would likely be less about territorial control than about coercive leverage.

“At this point, the administration’s actions are largely about trying to influence Iran’s behaviour, as much as anything, to compel them to come to an agreement,” Lieutenant General Karen Gibson, former director of intelligence for the US Central Command, told CNA. 

“So any actions that are taken, whether it’s the deployment of additional military forces or threats of additional strikes, are really focused more than anything on influencing the decision calculus of the Islamic Republic.”

Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, also said that if the US decides to deploy ground forces, Kharg Island would be a likely target to force Iran’s hand. 

“The goal would be to capture the island, defeat Iranian forces ashore, and seize control of Iranian oil infrastructure there, to deny Iran access to 90 per cent of its oil revenue,” he said.

By doing so, the US would leverage holding Iran’s oil infrastructure hostage to force it to accept a peace agreement on US terms and force open the Strait of Hormuz as part of those terms, Dr Davis added.