If Brexit had never happened, the Labour Party might be running the EU

A stronger showing for the Socialists, boosted by the Brits, could also have influenced the broader discussion on handing out the three most powerful EU jobs — the presidencies of the European Commission and European Council, along with the EU’s foreign affairs chief. Currently, those three roles are likely to be distributed between the center-right, socialists and liberals.

With the liberal Renew group getting smaller, wondered Imogen Tyreman, chair of the U.K. Labour Party’s Brussels branch: “Would they be taking any of the top jobs or would we have the pick?”

Starmer the socialist king

Starmer as prime minister — again, assuming that he gets a massive majority next week  — would immediately have assumed the mantle of the EU’s strongest head of government (in terms of parliamentary seats won).

In the real world, the EU’s socialist leaders are few in number and relatively weak. Olaf Scholz is an unpopular leader of a rickety coalition in Germany. Spain’s Pedro Sánchez is just about keeping a coalition with the far left alive. The other socialist-run EU countries are also governing in uncomfortable coalitions, as in Romania and Denmark, or are tiny, like Malta. 

“I think if you had a well-mandated social democrat leader from a larger member state it would strengthen the role of the S&D in the [European] Council,” said Tom Fillis, the secretary of the Brussels Labour branch.

However, other experts were doubtful that this parallel universe would pan out as imagined.