Heatwaves in India are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, with more than 90 percent of the country in the “danger zone” or “extremely cautious” of their impacts, according to a new study.
The study, conducted by Ramit Debnath and colleagues at the University of Cambridge, also revealed that Delhi is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of severe heatwaves, although its recent state climate change action plan does not reflect this.
He suggested that heatwaves have impeded India’s progress towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in more significant ways than previously thought, and that current assessment metrics may not fully capture the impacts of heat waves related to climate change in the country.
Heat waves have claimed more than 17,000 lives in 50 years in India, according to an article written by M Rajeevan, former Secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, along with scientists Kamaljit Ray, SS Ray, RK Giri and AP Dimri.
The article published in 2021 said that there were 706 heat wave incidents in the country between 1971 and 2019.
Thirteen people died of heat stroke at a Maharashtra government awards function in Navi Mumbai on Sunday, making it one of the highest death tolls from a single heatwave-related event. in the country’s history.
To assess India’s climate vulnerability and the potential impact of climate change on the progress of the SDGs, researchers at the University of Cambridge conducted an analytical assessment of the country’s heat index with its climate vulnerability index.
The Heat Index (HI) is a measure of how hot the human body feels, taking both temperature and humidity into account. The Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is a composite index that uses several indicators to take into account socioeconomic, livelihood and biophysical factors to study the impact of the heat wave.
The researchers accessed a publicly available data set on state-level climate vulnerability indicators from the government’s National Data and Analysis Platform to classify severity categories.
They then compared India’s progress on the SDGs over 20 years (2001-2021) with extreme weather-related mortality from 2001-2021.
The study showed that more than 90 percent of India is in the “extremely cautious” or “dangerous” range of heatwave impacts across HI, which is otherwise considered “low” vulnerability. or “moderate” through CVI. States that ranked “low” in the CVI rankings found themselves in HI “danger” categories, indicating that heatwaves put more people at risk of extreme weather across India than estimated by CVI.
The authors concluded that the use of CVI may underestimate the actual burden of climate change related to heat and suggested that India should consider reassessing its climate vulnerabilities to meet the SDGs.
They warned that if India does not address the impact of the heatwaves immediately, it could set back progress towards achieving the sustainable development goals.
The study also highlighted that current heat action plans designed and implemented in accordance with the Delhi government’s vulnerability assessment do not include HI estimates, which is concerning as even “low” climate vulnerability areas in Delhi are at high risk of heat waves.
The high intensity of development in the central, eastern, western and northeastern districts may further elevate HI risks through the formation of heat islands, it said.
The authors said that some of the critical variables in Delhi that will exacerbate heat-related vulnerabilities include slum population concentration and overcrowding in high HI areas, lack of access to basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation , the lack of availability of health services and immediate medical attention. insurance, poor condition of the houses and dirty fuel for cooking (biomass, kerosene and coal).
The threshold for a heat wave is reached when the maximum temperature of a season reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius in the plains, at least 37 degrees Celsius in coastal areas and at least 30 degrees Celsius in mountainous regions, and the deviation from normal is minus 4.5 degrees Celsius.
Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department forecast above-normal high temperatures for most of the country from April to June, except for parts of the north-west and peninsular regions.
Days of above-normal heatwaves are expected across most of central, eastern and northwestern India during this period. In 2023, India experienced its hottest February since record-keeping began in 1901. Above-normal rainfall in March, however, kept temperatures in check.
March 2022 was the warmest on record and the third driest in 121 years. The year also saw the country’s third-warmest April since 1901. In India, around 75 percent of workers (around 380 million people) experience heat-related stress. A report by the McKinsey Global Institute warns that if this continues, by 2030, the country could lose between 2.5 and 4.5 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year.
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(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed)
