India must keep an eye on Pakistan’s turmoil

The agitation in Pakistan under an interim government, exemplified by President Arif Alvi’s unprecedented accusation that he failed to sign two key bills and that his signature was forged, is destabilizing its security situation. The most significant of these threats is the Khorasan province of the Islamic State (ISKP), which is active in Pakistan and Afghanistan. One of its main targets is Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F), a prominent Sunni-Deobandi political party in Pakistan led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman.

The rise of ISKP is of particular concern to India due to its historical connection to Deoband Islam, which originated in India. ISKP’s ambition to target India has been evident through its media postings and claims of operations in the country. As the threat continues to grow, India must closely monitor developments and prepare a comprehensive strategy to counter the growing influence of ISKP in the region.

On July 30, a devastating suicide bombing at a JUI-F political rally in the city of Khar in Pakistan jyber Pakhtunkhwa province was linked to ISKP. The bombing killed 50 people and injured 200 others, making it one of the deadliest incidents in Pakistan this year. ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack within hours, pointing to its ongoing campaign against JUI-F and its affiliates.

JUI-F’s goal is rooted in sectarian rivalries, turf wars, and political expediency. The Deobandi school of thought, followed by JUI-F, has been seen as a major obstacle to ISKP’s extremist ideology. The group’s ideology is based on a Takfiri interpretation of Islam, which involves declaring some Muslims infidels or apostates due to perceived deviations from their puritanical beliefs. This ideology has been linked to violence and extremism.

ISKP’s media arm is publishing materials specifically targeted at Deobandis. An article in his Voice of Khorasan publication titled “Who are the Deobandis?” criticizes this branch of Sunni Islam, accusing them of drifting away from Islam based on their interpretations of Sharia. The publication points out similarities between some practices of the Deobandi and those considered polytheistic in rival schools of thought such as Barelvi. Also, ISKP condemns the leading Islamic scholars in Pakistan who belong to the Deobandi school but reject their doctrine.

Understanding the roots of the ISKP’s hostility towards JUI-F requires examining the events prior to its formation. Hafiz Saeed Khan, the eventual leader of ISKP, was a prominent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander in Orakzai tribal district in 2012-2013. During this time, he faced reprimands from TTP’s central command for allowing the assassination of JUI-F academics who spoke out against TTP. Later, when Hafiz Saeed and other TTP commanders joined ISKP in 2014, his animosity towards JUI-F, combined with the virulent ideology of the Islamic State, provided ISKP with the justification to condemn JUI-F’s beliefs.

Deobandi Islam traces its roots to Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, in the late 19th century. It emerged as a leading Islamic seminary and has gained a following in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although Deobandi Islam and the philosophy practiced in India do not align with the ideologies of the Taliban or JUI-F in Pakistan, ISKP media publications have revealed ambitions to establish a presence in India. In the 23rd edition of Voice of Khorasan, ISKP stated its intentions to target India, warning of IS-linked operatives in South India and linking them to previous attacks in Coimbatore and Mangaluru. ISKP also condemned high-profile meetings between top Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders and Muslim scholars, noting their continued monitoring of Indian current affairs.

Given the complex web of sectarian rivalries, political affiliations, and ideological conflicts, ISKP’s expansion poses a major threat to regional stability. New Delhi must take a multi-pronged approach to counter the growing power of ISKP. Close monitoring of its media outreach and intelligence sharing with regional partners are crucial to understanding and mitigating the threat. Strengthening anti-terrorism efforts and improving border security will help prevent ISKP-linked operatives from infiltrating Indian territory. Furthermore, India should engage in diplomatic efforts with Afghanistan and Pakistan to address the common threat posed by ISKP. Collaborative efforts to combat terrorism, share intelligence, and disrupt terrorist networks can be instrumental in containing the group’s influence in the region.

An unstable Pakistan not only affects the security of the immediate region, but also has spillover effects on neighboring countries like India. Collaboration with regional partners, strong intelligence sharing mechanisms and diplomatic efforts must be key components of India’s response.

Soumya Awasthi is a consultant to the Tony Blair Foundation. The opinions expressed are personal.