India must tread softly on South China Sea

India, a non-regional friendly country, should only act as a neutral player rather than become a protagonist, and encourage open dialogue and negotiations instead of inciting the regional states to rush to resolution of intractable territorial disputes. Beijing has been exploring a regional dispute mechanism with its South China Sea neighbours since 2002, while the US, which has no claims to the region, has been systematically ramping up its military presence since the early 2010s, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the South China Sea a matter of US “national interest” and began shoring up a network of alliances and undermining Chinese negotiating efforts.

Curiously, besides the Philippines, the other nine ASEAN members continue to maintain a very positive and expanding relationship with Beijing, including Vietnam which has a contentious relationship with China in the South China Sea. Malaysia has become increasingly close to China. Within the Philippines itself, opinion is divided over China. The US is manipulating Marcos Jr while effectively eroding ASEAN’s centrality, which is a core element of India’s Act East policy.

The Indian predicament seems to be that China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice if the region were forced to align itself in the ongoing US-China rivalry, as the recent State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey conducted by Singapore’s ISEAS -Yusof Ishak Institute reveals.