India has been among the most vocal about what it calls the “too little, too distant” outcome of the COP29 meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan. On December 8, at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is listening to the views of 98 countries on the ways to deal with climate change, India’s representative argued that developed countries have exploited the global carbon budget, failed to meet their commitment to climate finances, and are wrongfully demanding that developing countries restrict their fossil fuel use.
Most of India’s arguments are known and have been reiterated in many forums. Multiple challenges to its own just energy transition are at the heart of such statements. However, despite making all the right noises, whether India is on course to meet its net zero objectives remains debatable.
India’s battle against climate change and toward a just energy transition is saddled with myriad challenges. The country’s development path has been fueled by coal and yet it seeks to make decisive steps to invest in renewable energy. There is a case for the developing world to be funded by developed countries as they transition to cleaner energy, but also a case for resisting the pressure to transition too fast, as it would impact millions still dependent on fossil fuel as a key source of development and livelihood. New Delhi wants the world, especially the developed world, to appreciate this.
India’s renewable energy capacity grew by 250 percent between 2014 and 2021. The country now ranks fourth in renewable energy installed capacity in the world. By 2030, it hopes to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil-based electricity generation capacity. At the same time, India’s reliance on coal continues to grow, with new mines opening and production increasing. India does not expect such reliance to end before the next decade, although skeptics think it may take much longer.
India has resisted European and American pressure to enter into any coal-focused Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), unlike South Africa and Indonesia. In November 2024, a German official revealed that New Delhi, after years of negotiations, decided not to pursue such a JETP with Germany and the United States, as it would push it toward a debt-ridden path and other dependencies.
According to conservative estimates, about 13 million people in India earn their livelihood from coal-related industries. Adding those in the informal sector in coal mining, labor involved in coal imports, indirect activities in the iron and steel sector including third-party sellers, warehousing staff, third-party vendors like equipment manufacturers, the number could be as many as 20 million. Coal-dependent economies of certain states like Jharkhand, which account for the bulk of India’s coal deposits, could simply collapse in case of a hurried transition.
Not surprisingly, a 2021 study indicated that India’s transition away from coal could be “messy and complicated.” The preparations for that would invariably mean dialogues with a range of stakeholders, which include influential trade unions. A survey in November 2024 revealed that the level of awareness about a just transition differed drastically among unions, which may impact their acceptance of the official course of action.
There are other roadblocks. India’s domestic climate policies do not appear to be in sync with its net zero objectives. Worse, as India focuses much of its efforts on just energy transition and equitable climate financing, the urgency of implementing climate-resilient measures at home appears to have been neglected. More importantly, the political economy challenges across states and regions need to be factored in to actualize the just energy transition.
A report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revealed that the country recorded extreme weather events in 255 of the first 273 days (nine months) of 2024, underscoring the profound influence of global warming on the country. Rising temperatures that are manifested in hot summers, warm winters, and higher nighttime temperatures take a toll on people and their productivity. And yet, equitable access to cooling solutions, robust public health systems, and adaptive strategies to combat the escalating challenges of a warming climate are yet to be prioritized.
Pollution in India’s national capital New Delhi this winter is at an alarming level, but the government does not seem to have an answer to this recurring phenomenon. The state of pollution in Delhi and many other Indian urban centers could be seen as symptomatic of a policy drag that affects India’s climate action as well.
Experts have pointed out that India’s domestic climate policies suffer due to the lack of a central administrative organization to align the efforts of various ministries and state governments. The organization can be tasked with monitoring green transition regulations, assessing their impacts, and reviewing progress. The costs of renewable energy remains high due to interstate levies and charges. This discourages industries from adopting renewables involving interstate transmission. Similarly, a large chunk of India’s domestic climate finance through carbon tax collections remains unutilized and is diverted to other sectors. Restructuring, centralization, and transparency in spending all carbon tax collections for climate action need to be prioritized. And lastly, India needs a unified explicit carbon tax to simplify compliance of industries and improve monitoring.
The need for a just energy transition for a fast-growing and yet developing economy like India cannot be overemphasized. While each country will encounter a unique set of challenges, the key to success lies in measured progress through multistakeholder engagement for mapping out future pathways and assisting the change-makers with restructuring existing frameworks that stymie or delay a just energy transition.
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