Indonesia’s April trade surplus was seen rising from the previous month, with imports declining due to lower production activity during the Ramadan holiday, a Reuters survey showed.
Analysis of the median of 14 economists in the survey showed that the trade surplus in April likely rose to $3.38 billion from $2.91 billion in March.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has been posting monthly trade surpluses since mid-2020, but economists have said it will likely narrow this year as prices of some commodities fall due to weakening global demand.
Economists in the survey predicted April exports would fall 18.55 percent on an annual basis due to high base effects, marking a deeper contraction from 11.33 percent the previous month.
April imports were also seen to be down 7.85 percent from the same month last year, up from a 6.26 percent contraction in March.
Faisal Rachman, an economist at Bank Mandiri, said that in addition to the moderation in commodity prices, a decline in exports was also seen in April due to fewer working days compared to the same month last year, which had the Ramadan holiday in May.
He, who projected a surplus of $3.25 billion in April, expects the trade surplus to continue to narrow in the future as exports are expected to continue to decline.
“However, the trade surplus could last longer than anticipated as the decline in commodity prices will be more gradual due to China’s economic reopening and OPEC+ oil production cuts,” Faisal said. , referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies. .