Investors react to BOJ’s decision to hold rates

April 28 : The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of the nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signalling the bank’s concern over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.

As widely expected, the central bank left unchanged its short-term policy rate at 0.75 per cent in a two-day meeting that ended on Tuesday. Board members Hajime Takata, Naoki Tamura, and Junko Nakagawa dissented from the decision, instead calling for a hike to 1.0 per cent.

Markets are focusing on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s media briefing for clues on how the protracted Iran war is affecting the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike path.

Comments

FRED NEUMANN, CHIEF ASIA ECONOMIST, HSBC, HONG KONG:

“A close call for the BOJ. While the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold, the three dissenting votes highlight the tensions monetary officials face.”

“Monetary officials in Japan are not alone in facing the dilemma whether to tighten policy into an energy price shock that is simultaneously inflationary and growth destructive.”

“Still, today’s message from the Bank of Japan is that it remains poised to tighten policy sooner than later. The Bank of Japan will not be able to hold out for too long before tightening policy again, even if the spike in energy costs will take its inevitable toll on growth.”

TOHRU SASAKI, CHIEF STRATEGIST, FUKUOKA FINANCIAL GROUP AND FORMER BOJ OFFICIAL, TOKYO:

“I think that’s the reason behind the yen appreciation right now: the three dissenters. The focus is on the CPI, and the inflation forecast has been revised up by the majority. So I think that’s also another reason to see this decision as kind of hawkish.”

“One of the three dissenters, Nakagawa, whose term will expire in June, will be replaced by a very dovish person. So it could be a last chance to see the three dissenters. But three is the three, so I think it’s a hawkish result.”

BART WAKABAYASHI, BRANCH MANAGER, STATE STREET, TOKYO:    “We’re seeing higher inflation on our indicators. I’m not surprised (they held), but I would not have been surprised if they hiked. They want to avoid shocking the market, and the expectations were for no change.    “There’s consensus that they need to do a hike next time. That’s pretty much written in stone, as far as we can predict this far out – get it to 1 per cent and then they’re done.”

HIROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF FX STRATEGIST, SMBC, TOKYO:

“It was somewhat surprising that three votes were cast in favour of a rate hike, with Board Member Nakagawa also shifting to support an increase.”

“In Japan, it is already concerning that the impact is beginning to show up in consumer sentiment, and it is likely to feed through to prices going forward. At the same time, depreciation pressure on the yen persists in financial markets. Taken together, the BOJ will have little choice but to maintain its bias toward rate hikes.”

“If it can be confirmed that the situation in the Middle East has improved to some extent, an additional rate hike is expected around June-July.”