Iran’s protests fuelled by an ailing economy the regime cannot fix: Analysts

Recovery would require large-scale external support and investments, added Amin Saikal, an adjunct senior fellow at the Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. 

“What (Tehran) really needs is an injection of a massive amount of funds into its economy – for example, US$50 billion – and that could only come from outside,” he said. 

That leaves Tehran in a bind. Sanctions relief would require negotiations with the United States and its allies – something the regime is reluctant to pursue if it means compromising on its nuclear programme or regional influence. 

While Iran has long said it is open to talks, Washington remains adamant that Tehran must halt uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. 

Iranian leaders insist their nuclear programme is peaceful and intended only for civilian purposes, even as enrichment levels have risen. 

Among Iran’s allies, only China has the financial muscle to offer meaningful relief, said Saikal. 

“There’s a very strong strategic relationship between China and Iran. There’s also a similar relationship (with) Moscow, but Russia is not really in a position to be as helpful as Beijing may be,” he told CNA’s Asia Now, referring to Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine. 

Without external funding, Iran’s authorities are left with few options to address public anger. 

“(Iran) doesn’t (want to) negotiate with the West because that goes against its ideological bedrock,” said Akbarzadeh. “So, the regime relies on security crackdowns, (like) it has done so in the past.”