Is a Triple Crown within reach for Judge or Ohtani?

No, it’s not likely. Then again, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both have made a habit of beating the odds to achieve extremely rare or even unprecedented feats. So would you really count them out?

The two MVP Award favorites entered Friday in similar positions. Both had home run and RBI titles locked up. Each trailed his league’s batting average leader by seven points heading into the final three games of the season. Both races also have a third competitor who remains a threat. In addition, Judge’s Yankees and Ohtani’s Dodgers both clinched division titles and first-round byes on Thursday night, thereby giving both players an opportunity to get a day of rest.

Their paths diverged a bit on Friday, however. While Judge took a rare day off, Ohtani continued his torrid stretch at the plate by going 4-for-5 in a win over the Rockies at Coors Field. If the race wasn’t on before, it is now.

Here is a closer look at the math behind each player’s late Triple Crown charge.

Ohtani’s chances appeared to be lower than Judge’s entering Friday, based on the fact that he was five points behind Ozuna for second place. But that gap evaporated, as Ohtani posted another huge game, while Ozuna went 0-for-3.

So let’s set Ozuna aside and focus here on Ohtani vs. Arraez, who kept his grip on the NL lead with two more hits on Friday against the D-backs.

With the Dodgers having clinched the NL West title and the Padres a Wild Card spot (and home field in the Wild Card Series), it’s entirely possible that both players rest for one of the final two games. Let’s look at two scenarios, then: One where they both play one more game (and get five at-bats), and one where they both play two more games (and get nine).

One game apiece (Arraez 639 total at-bats, Ohtani 632)

Here are a few scenarios based on those exact at-bat totals (all batting averages are taken out to four decimal places below to help break ties):

• If Ohtani goes 4-for-5 (finishing at .3133) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 1-for-5 (finishing at .3129).

• If Ohtani goes 3-for-5 (finishing at .3117) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 0-for-5 (finishing at .3114).

Two games apiece (Arraez 643 total at-bats, Ohtani 636)

• If Ohtani goes 6-for-9 (finishing at .3145) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 3-for-9 (finishing at .3141).

• If Ohtani goes 5-for-9 (finishing at .3129) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 2-for-9 (finishing at .3125).

• If Ohtani goes 4-for-9 (finishing at .3113) … he would win if Arraez goes 1-for-9 (finishing at .3110).

Since Judge and Guerrero are so close in the standings, let’s focus our math on Judge vs. Witt.

• If Judge goes 6-for-7 (finishing at .3316) … he would win if Witt went no better than 2-for-8 (finishing at .3313).

• If Judge goes 5-for-7 (finishing at .3298) … he would win if Witt went no better than 1-for-8 (finishing at .3297).

• Nothing less than 5-for-7 would win it for Judge.

Obviously, the range of possible outcomes is much wider than that, but the key point here is this: Either player (but especially Ohtani) could snatch a Triple Crown with a strong final push — and some help from their competitors’ opposing pitchers.