Is the new variant vaccine-resistant? Here’s what Professor Karim thinks

After the pandemic hit, we looked towards vaccines and now that they’re approaching, we obviously want to take comfort in the fact that they will be effective, especially against the new variant 501Y.V2. Professor Salim Abdool Karim, who has been guiding us through two waves of COVID-19, provided an update on the new variant on Monday 18 January. During the update, he said there is no evidence, as yet, that the vaccines are effective against the new variant. However, he also said there is no need to change our vaccine strategy. 

WILL THE VACCINES BE EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE NEW VARIANT?

When asked if there is any evidence to suggest that the vaccines are effective against the new variant, Karim said “I’m sorry to tell you, not yet”. 

“Many many scientists across the world are working on this. I mean, we have direct communication with several of them and we don’t yet have an answer. We’re expecting an answer pretty soon and there’s much to speculate on this but we want to see the actual data, it’s not yet available” he added. 

SHOULD WE BE CHANGING OUR VACCINE APPROACH? 

When asked if the above information should make us consider changing our vaccine approach, Karim said “in my view, the answer is no”. 

“Not at this stage, not to the evidence we have at this point. Vaccines that we see with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines at 95% efficacy are among the most effective vaccines that we have for any disease. Take for example the measles vaccine, this is comparable with that, one of our most successful vaccines,” he said. 

“So we’re looking at pretty high efficacy vaccines and they achieve a critically important goal which is they reduce clinical illness and hospitalisation,” he added. 

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT ABOUT THE 501Y.V2 VARIANT? 

• The virus is spreading (~50%) faster in the second wave than in the first wave in SA’s coastal provinces where the 501Y.V2 variant is known to be dominant;
• Current data suggests that the new variant is NOT more severe;
• No empiric evidence yet on whether vaccines are effective against the 501Y.V2 variant – studies are underway;
• The vaccine rollout is not going to be easy or quick according to Karim. It will be a “mammoth logistical task that needs all hands on deck to vaccinate at least HCWs, elderly, and patients with hypertension, diabetes and cancer”; and 
• Karim says we should call the variant ‘501Y.V2’ and not the “South African” variant just like “SARS-CoV-2” is not called “China virus”. 

UNKNOWNS THAT WILL TAKE ‘LONG TO RESOLVE OR ANSWER FULLY’ 

According to Karim, there are some unknowns regarding the vaccine that may take a while to be resolved. He listed them as the following; 

• Are they free of long-term side effects?
• Do they prevent asymptomatic infection?
• Do they prevent viral spread from vaccinees?
• Do they work against new variants?