Is the UK election already over? 

As Pat McFadden, Labour’s election chief, posted after one poll predicting a massive Labour victory: “Ignore this poll. Fight like we are behind. Fight like every vote matters. Change will only come for the country if people vote for it, and not a single vote has been cast.”

No way back? 

Sunak isn’t giving up without a fight. After toying with a “change” message last year, the PM appears to have settled on a more traditional sell: that only the Tories can be trusted with the economy. 

Speaking after a recent drop in inflation, Sunak told the BBC that 2024 will “prove to be the year that the economy bounces back.” He has repeatedly urged voters not to go back to “square one” with Labour. 

Yet while some economic indicators do encourage optimism — particularly the hope of lower interest rates for mortgage holders later this year — Sunak is unlikely to be rewarded while voters are still feeling the pinch. 

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank, pointed to reasons why talk of a bounce might feel misplaced, including “weak growth long-term and stagnation of living standards, with average wages still below the level they were before the financial crisis.”

This picture is reflected in focus groups run by Public First, a public opinion consultancy. The firm’s director, James Frayne, said: “People feel they’ve been beaten up financially for five years — almost everyone feels poorer.”