This article was originally published on The conversation. (opens in a new tab) The publication contributed the article to Space.com’s Expert Voices: Opinion Article and Perspectives.
Headlines that herald the rise of a new “space race” between the US and China have become common (opens in a new tab) in the news coverage after many of the exciting releases of the last few years. Experts have pointed out that China rapid advances in space as evidence of an emerging landscape where China is competing directly with the US for supremacy.
This idea of a US-China space race sounds compelling given the larger narrative of China’s rise, but how accurate is it? as a teacher who studies space and international relations (opens in a new tab), my research aims to quantify the power and capabilities of different nations in space. When I look at various capabilities, the data paints a much more complex picture than a hard-fought space race between the US and China. At least for now, the reality looks more like what I call a complex hegemony: one state, US. mastering key spatial capabilities (opens in a new tab)and this advantage is further amplified by a strong partner network (opens in a new tab).
A clear leader makes the race boring
Calling the current situation a race implies that the US and China have roughly equal capabilities in space. But in several key areas, the US is way ahead of not just China, but all other space-capable nations combined.
Starting with spending: In 2021, the US space budget was roughly $59.8 billion (opens in a new tab). China has been investing heavily in rocket and space technology for the past decade and has doubled its spending in the past five years. But with an estimated budget of $16.18 billion (opens in a new tab) in 2021, it still spends less than a third of the US budget.
The United States also leads significantly in the number of active satellites. Currently there 5,465 total operational satellites (opens in a new tab) in orbit around Land. The United States operates 3,433, or 63% of them. By contrast, China has 541.
Similarly, the US has more active spaceports (opens in a new tab) what china with seven operational launch sites at home and abroad (opens in a new tab) and at least additional 13 (opens in a new tab) space ports Developing (opens in a new tab), the US has more options to launch payloads in various orbits. By contrast, China only has four operational spaceports (opens in a new tab) with two more planned (opens in a new tab)all located within their own territory.
tint parity
While the US may have a distinct advantage over China in many areas of space, on some measures the differences between the two countries are more nuanced.
In 2021, for example, China tried 55 orbital launches (opens in a new tab), four more than the US’s 51. The total numbers may be similar, but the rockets carried vastly different payloads into orbit. The vast majority, 84%, of Chinese launches had government or military payloads intended primarily for electronic intelligence and optical imaging. Meanwhile, in the US, 61% of launches were for non-military, academic, or commercial use, predominantly for Earth observation or telecommunications.
Space stations are another area where there are important differences lurking just below the surface. Since the 1990s, the United States has worked with 14 other nations (opens in a new tab)including Russia, to operate the International Space Station. The ISS is quite large, with 16 modules, and has conducted technological and scientific advances (opens in a new tab). But the ISS is now 24 years old and participating nations plan withdraw it in 2030.
The Chinese Tiangong space station is the new kid on the block. The construction was only completed end of 2022, and it is much smaller, with only three modules. China has built and commissioned all the different parts and remains the sole operator of the station, despite have invited others to join (opens in a new tab).
China is undoubtedly expanding its space capabilities, and in a report published in August 2022, the Pentagon he predicted that China would surpass the capabilities of the US. (opens in a new tab) in space as early as 2045. However, the US is unlikely to remain stagnant as funding for space continues to increase.
Allies as force multipliers
A major point of difference between the US and China is the nature and number of international collaborations.
For decades, NASA has been fruitfully cultivating international and commercial partnerships in everything from developing specific space technologies to getting humans into space. The US government has also signed 169 spatial data sharing agreements (opens in a new tab) with 33 states and intergovernmental organizations, 129 with commercial partners and seven with academic institutions.
China also has allies helping with space, most notably Russia and members of the Asia-Pacific Organization for Space Cooperation (opens in a new tab), including Iran, Pakistan, Thailand and Türkiye. However, China’s collaborators are fewer in number and have far less developed space capabilities.
The efforts to return to the surface of the moon excellently highlight this difference in allied support and synergy. Both the US and China have plans to send people to the surface of the moon and establish lunar bases in the near future. These competing lunar targets are often cited as evidence of the space race (opens in a new tab)but they are very different in terms of associations and scope.
In 2019, Russia and China agreed to go to the moon together in 2028. Russia is contributing its Moon landers and Oryol manned orbiters, while China is upgrading its Chang’e robotic spaceship. Its future International Lunar Research Station is “open to all interested parties and international partnersbut, to date, no additional countries have committed to the Chinese-Russian effort.
By contrast, since 2020, 24 countries have joined the US-led alliance. Artemis Accords. This international agreement outlines shared actions principles of cooperation for future space activity and, through the Artemis Program, specifically aims to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a lunar base and lunar space station shortly thereafter.
In addition to extensive international participation, the Artemis Program has recruited an astonishing number of private companies (opens in a new tab) to develop a range of technologies (opens in a new tab)of lunar landers to lunar construction methods and further (opens in a new tab).
China isn’t the only game in town
While China may seem like the US’s main competitor in space, other countries have space capabilities and aspirations that rival China’s.
India spends billions on space and plans return to the moon (opens in a new tab), possibly with Japan, in the near future. South Korea, Israel, Japan, United Arab Emirates, Turkey (opens in a new tab), Germany (opens in a new tab) and the European Union (opens in a new tab) they are also planning independent lunar missions. Japan has developed impressive space technology capabilities, including proximity rendezvous technology for send a spaceship to an asteroid and bring samples back to Earth that rival and even surpass those of china (opens in a new tab).
In the past, the space race was about who could reach the stars first and return home. Today, the goal has shifted to surviving and even thriving in the harsh environment of space. I think it is not surprising that, despite its decisive leadership, the US has partnered with others to go to the Moon and beyond. China is doing the same, but on a smaller scale. The picture that emerges is not of a “race” but of a complex system with the US as the leader working closely with extensive networks of partners.
This article is republished from The conversation (opens in a new tab) under a Creative Commons license. Read the Original article (opens in a new tab).
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