Sultan Haitham in Iran
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, is “not on the agenda right now,” according to the White House, but US-Iran diplomacy nonetheless , continues indirectly through trusted intermediaries.
Axios reported this week that the White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk he was in Oman on May 8 to discuss Iran with his hosts.
The US and Iran, while not speaking directly, have relied on the EU, Oman and others to work through what might be possible in the absence of the JCPOA. The hitherto elusive package, known as “less for less,” is expected to include some form of sanctions relief, aside from the JCPOA, and unfreezing up to $7 billion in South Quran funds owed to Iran, in exchange for Tehran implement a limit on its enrichment activities to prevent further progress towards a potential nuclear weapon.
The visit to Tehran last week of the Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq Al Saida trusted and valued partner and interlocutor by both Washington and Tehran, including his meeting with the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on May 29, has sparked speculation that there may be even more traction in US-Iran diplomacy, says Al-Monitor contributor Ali Hashem.
Oman has been instrumental in US and regional diplomacy with Iran, including the release and exchange of Western detainees there. Following Sultan Haitham’s visit this week, Iran released a Danish citizen and two Austrians detained after mediation by Oman. as Adam Lucente reports. Those releases today follow those of a Belgian and two French citizens in May.
Any progress in US-Iran diplomacy ultimately depends on the return of the three US citizens detained there: Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargiand Dwell Tahbaz.
“All parties have been especially quiet about what may or may not be happening,” Hashem says. “Sultan Haitham’s personal diplomacy in Iran seems to raise the level of engagement on a variety of issues. He and Khamenei discussed the thaw in Iran’s ties to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. We don’t know, but we can probably assume that they also discussed the US file.”
Iran and the IAEA
The most recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the watchdog organization that oversees Tehran’s nuclear program, suggest what Iran’s post-JCPOA approach to its nuclear program might be.
The IAEA Board of Governors meets in Vienna on June 5.
According to confidential assessments distributed to IAEA member states this week, Iran has increased its reserves of highly enriched uranium by 27% in the past three months and could have enough fuel for a nuclear weapon in two weeks or less, reports Wall Street. Journal. .
Otherwise, Iran is sticking to a widely understood US red line on expanding enrichment beyond 60% to 90%, or weapons grade, to avoid UN sanctions or worse.
Meanwhile, the IAEA is archiving long-standing files related to questions about undeclared nuclear activities, and Iran has agreed to reinstall cameras and monitoring equipment at key facilities.
“Overall, the IAEA report may be two small steps forward, given Iran’s increasing cooperation, and one big step back, given the continued expansion of its uranium reserves,” he says. mark fitzpatrick , Associate Member for Strategy, Technology and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It is worrying that Iran could produce five nuclear weapons in such a short time.”
The IAEA report suggests that Iran may be willing to operate within the limitations of its commitment as member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, in the absence of the JCPOA, assuming the IAEA continues to work to close the remaining safeguards files. The reserves are likely to be used as a bargaining chip, and even a deterrent, pending some kind of understanding with the US on what turns out to be less for less.
Israel’s ‘clear message to Iran’
Israel has been alarmed both by the IAEA reports and by the prospect of secret channel diplomacy between the United States and Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuHe said: “I have a very clear message for Iran and for the international community. Israel will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.” as Rina Bassist reports.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah organized aunprecedented show of forcein mid-May in southern Lebanon which, as Ben Caspit reportsIt comes against a backdrop of increasing Israeli threats against Iran and “resurgent signs of preparations for an Israeli military offensive against Iranian nuclear facilities.”
Despite Israeli concerns, US-Israeli security coordination in Iran appears as well coordinated as ever.
CETCOM Commander Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurillawho oversees all US military forces in the region, spent three days in Israel last week, as Report by Jared Szuba and bassist Rina .
Israel’s top national security officials: Shin Bet chief Ronen BarMinister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor zachi hanegbi — were all in Washington this week to discuss Iran and other issues with their American counterparts, as Rina Bassist reports.
Israeli leaders have held on to testimony before Congress on March 23 from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General. mark milleythat Iran could produce enough fissile material for four or five nuclear bombs in “less than two weeks,” an assessment with which Israeli intelligence is well familiar, Ben Caspit writes . “What surprised Israel’s defense establishment,” Caspit adds, “was Milley’s claim that once Iran produces enough military-grade uranium, it could arm a nuclear weapon within ‘several more months.’”
“The Israeli reaction and the timetable may be an exaggeration,” according to Ali Vaez , Director of Iran Projects at International Crisis Group. “The IAEA report does not indicate any significant change in Iran’s capability, or that it has decided to pursue a weapon. They want to nip any diplomatic initiative in the bud before it can move forward.”
Uncertainty in the Gulf, political obstacles in Washington
The Biden administration, while sidelining the JCPOA, still prefers a diplomatic approach toward Iran that prioritizes de-escalation and conflict both in the region and in its nuclear files.
Although the United States has strengthened its overall deterrent posture and supported regional initiatives to defuse tensions with Iran, including the Saudi-Iran deal to resume ties in March, Gulf capitals are uneasy about what they perceive as a lack of clarity about US policy in the region, especially after Iran seized two oil tankers on April 27 and May 3. The UAE foreign ministry said on May 31 that it had withdrawn its participation in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) coalition, although the US withdrew, Jared Szuba reports.
The Biden administration may not care about Israeli pressure and the threat of force to keep Iran in check until it can reach some sort of diplomatic deal with Iran.
For now, a “less for less” deal may be the most realistic possibility, given political headwinds in both Washington and Tehran, and some unease about US and Iranian intentions in the region.
“(American President Joe Biden it is in an election cycle, and the types of sanctions relief that Iran is seeking will not be approved by Congress,” Vaez explained to Al-Monitor. “Therefore, the gap between Iran and the United States may be unbridgeable in the short term.”
“Iran may also prefer to keep tensions low as it continues to come to terms with a struggling economy and the political and social consequences of the protests following the death ofmahsa aminiin September”, adds Vaez. “The best possible outcome, for now, may be an ‘understanding’ to prevent things from escalating.”
