Israel is creating an explosive situation in Al-Aqsa

On April 5, shocking images They emerged from the Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem occupied by Israeli security forces mercilessly beating Palestinian worshipers. The brutal violence left at least 12 Palestinians injured at Islam’s third holiest site and fueled public anger.

Rockets were fired from Gaza and Lebanon as a warning against further escalation, but Israel did not listen. The next day it repeated the violent attack in al-Haram al-Sharif, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque is located, and carried out airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon.

By now it is quite clear that US efforts to prevent another escalation in Palestine are failing. And once again, it is not the Palestinian side that is responsible.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desperate attempt to cling to power does not lead to any de-escalation that Washington may desire and is bound to accelerate processes that could ultimately unleash violence and instability far beyond occupied East Jerusalem.

Failure of US diplomacy

For more than a year, tensions in the occupied Palestinian territories have been high. Palestinian armed resistance has been active, especially in Jenin and Nablus, while Israeli security forces have carried out incessant violent raids on Palestinian towns and villages.

The United Nations called 2022 the deadliest year for the occupied West Bank in the last 16 years, as israeli army killed at least 170 Palestinians, including 30 children, and injured at least 9,000. The first two months of this year have been the most violent since 2000with 65 Palestinians killed, including 13 children.

This year, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan coincides with the Jewish holiday of Passover. So it was clear that this time of year would be another potential focus of violence. Hoping to avoid a major escalation, which would distract attention from the war in Ukraine, two regional meetings were held under the auspices of the United States to negotiate measures to calm the situation.

On February 26, Palestinian, Israeli, Jordanian, Egyptian, and American officials met in the Jordanian port city of Aqaba. board release Issued after the summit stressed a commitment to “de-escalation on the ground… to prevent further violence” and an Israeli promise to stop authorizing new illegal settlements in Palestinian territories for six months.

On March 19, another meeting was held in Sharm el-Sheikh, where Palestinian and Israeli officials pledged to uphold the status quo of holy places in Jerusalem “both in words and in practice” and stressed the “need for Israelis and Palestinians to actively prevent any action that would disturb the sanctity of these sites, including during the upcoming holy month of Ramadan.”

But the Netanyahu government has not maintained the status quo in word or deed. The Israeli prime minister is allied with ultra-religious and far-right forces who have openly declared that Israel’s recognition of Jordanian guardianship of the holy sites was a historic mistake that they are obliged to rectify.

In fact, 2023 started with the far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir entering al-Haram al-Sharif, sparking public anger across Palestine. Under his watch, Israeli settler raids on the Muslim holy site under the protection of Israeli security forces have only intensified.

Ben-Gvir and the other extremists in the government are Netanyahu’s only chance to stay in power and avoid jail time for corruption. They know this, and they are taking advantage of the situation to support with all possible means the violence that the Jewish settlers have unleashed on the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and to continue eroding the status quo in the holy places with the aim of establishing new facts on the ground, that is, total Israeli control.

Netanyahu doesn’t necessarily care. For him, the violence is a useful distraction from the anti-government protests that have plagued his sixth term.

‘A Religious War’

It is quite evident that war is not in Israel’s interest. He is currently concerned about the Palestinian resistance in the West Bank. He is concerned about Iran’s military presence and diplomatic successes in the region. He has been attacking Syria regularly, seeking to curb Iranian influence, and is concerned about Hezbollah’s role in a recent roadside bomb explosion near the border with Lebanon.

Whether Netanyahu would listen to the Israeli security establishment is another matter.

On the other hand, Hamas in Gaza has tried to give a measured response. It has warned Israel against further incursions into Al-Aqsa. He is reluctant to escalate as this could divert attention from the Palestinian resistance in the West Bank, which Hamas views as the main arena of the conflict with Israel. Armed attacks in the occupied territories cause the Israeli authorities much more anxiety than a confrontation with Gaza.

Hamas’s strategy now is to encourage a Palestinian popular mobilization in the West Bank, Jerusalem and Israel to serve as a barrier to a further invasion of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

That said, Hamas may also find itself under pressure to act decisively, especially if Israel’s brutal violence against the faithful continues. The Palestinian people have already reacted angrily to the weak condemnations issued by the Palestinian Authority and its inaction.

Hamas leaders would not want to be perceived as passive and may feel compelled to comply with popular demand to take a tougher stance and intensify rocket fire into Israel.

Thus, a repeat of the 2021 war in Gaza, which was also triggered by Israel’s raids on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, may take place. But escalation beyond that is also on the horizon.

There have been repeated warnings that Israel’s actions at the holy sites could spark a “religious war.” In January, Jordanian Ambassador Mahmoud Daifallah Hmoud told the UN Security Council that the Israeli attacks on al-Haram al-Sharif are stirring up “the feelings of almost two billion Muslims” and could provoke a “religious conflict”.

There is growing concern that with its aggressive actions in Al-Aqsa, the Netanyahu government is trying to impose restrictions on Palestinian access to the holy site, as was done with the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron. The latter was divided by the Israeli authorities into sections that Muslims and Jews can visit to supposedly prevent further violence after a Jewish settler opened fire on Muslim worshipers, killing 29 in 1994.

Imposing these measures on the Al-Aqsa compound would be a clear violation of the status quo, according to which non-Muslims can only visit at certain times and cannot pray inside.

So far there have only been condemnations issued by the Arab states, the European Union and the US. What the Arab and Western capitals fail to understand is that unless there is a tough response to Israeli actions now, the allies of extreme Netanyahu’s right wing will only be encouraged to go even further in their efforts to seize Muslim (and Christian) holy sites and establish themselves.

Its attack on al-Haram al-Sharif is turning it into a detonator that sooner or later will blow up the entire region.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.