Italy on track to elect far-right government: Exit polls

ROME — Italian voters appear to have elected the country’s most right-wing government since World War II, after exit polls suggested a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni is on course for power.

Italians voted on Sunday in an election that analysts predicted would usher in the far-right firebrand Meloni — leader of the Brothers of Italy party — as the country’s first female prime minister.  

If the polls are confirmed, the right will take control at a critical time for Italy’s economy and for Europe, with Russia’s war in Ukraine driving inflation and testing the limits of Western unity against Moscow. 

The exit poll suggested Brothers of Italy alone had taken in the range of 23-27 percent of the vote, with their allies the anti-immigration League party and former PM Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right Forza Italia taking 9.5-13.5 percent and 6-8 percent respectively.

The right-wing coalition overall is predicted to win 43-47 percent of the vote, according to the exit poll by the SWG polling agency, for La7 television.

Lorenzo Castellani, from the political science department at Luiss University in Rome said the detail of the final result will be crucial for Meloni’s chances of forming a long-lasting administration.

If the exit poll is right, winning 43-47 percent of the vote would mean a majority of at least 15-20 senators, “which means you can govern in a much more stable way, without problems,” he said. With 46-47 percent, “they should have won 90 percent of the first past the post seats and may have the two thirds supermajority needed to change the constitution without a referendum.”

Turnout was down in many parts of the country, after heavy rain. Castellani said low turnout “could make the polls more reliable, as it means that not many people decided at the last minute to vote.” 

The result appears to confirm an astonishing surge for Meloni, whose party took just 4 per cent at the latest election in 2018.

Meloni’s success is partly down to not being tarnished by association with previous governments, as she has remained in opposition since founding her party 10 years ago.  

Over the past year, she has sought to recast the Brothers of Italy as a mainstream conservative group, to appeal to more sophisticated voters, aligning herself completely with NATO and the U.S. on Ukraine. She has refused to endorse her allies’ unrealistic promises on pensions and tax.  

“Meloni has managed to remove voters from her allies because she is seen as the leader of the moment, most coherent and did not make compromises in coalition government,” said Castellani.  

Over the past two weeks her gains are likely down to the bandwagon effect, where voters decide to get on board with the winner.  

The right-wing alliance had been ahead in the polls since Mario Draghi’s government collapsed in July, but a blackout on voting intention surveys for the final two weeks of the campaign created uncertainty over the size of their lead.

After the results are officially confirmed, Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella will open consultations with the parties, to confirm whether the right’s candidate can command a majority in parliament.  

Under an agreement of the right-wing coalition, the party with the most votes nominates the candidate for prime minister. Given the necessary horse-trading over Cabinet positions, the next government may not take office for several weeks.