Japan’s Takaichi faces uphill task in lower house election after ally’s exit

On January 23, the opening day of the Diet, Takaichi is expected to announce the dissolution of the House of Representatives, with polling likely to take place on February 8 or February 15, according to media reports.

Takaichi has told the LDP of her plan to dissolve parliament for an election soon, and would reveal more details on such a move on Monday, according to Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of the Japan Innovation Party, which is part of the ruling party’s coalition.

While the prime minister is riding high in opinion polls and has largely controlled the national narrative since taking office, some analysts warn that pressing ahead without Komeito’s backing could prove costly.

“I believe that calling the election now would be idiotic because it could cost Takaichi her premiership,” said Michael Cucek, a professor of Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

Under the former alliance, Komeito voters were instructed to vote tactically in single-seat districts, mainly by backing LDP candidates and hence delivering an estimated additional 6 million votes to the ruling party nationwide at the last lower house election in 2024, Cucek said.