Joanna Shelton: US-India ties in a changing world

Biden described the US-India relationship as “a partnership that is among the most important in the world, one that is stronger, closer and more dynamic than at any time in history.” Modi responded in equally glowing terms, referring to India-US relations as a “comprehensive and global strategic partnership.”

Younger readers will not remember India’s well-known stance as leader of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) during the Cold War between the United States and our allies on the one hand, and the former Soviet Union and its satellite countries on the other.

India, eventually joined by some 120 countries from Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, tried to cut a separate path between the two nuclear-armed titans and their blocs. Even after the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, India and its NAM partners maintained an independent stance, aiming to avoid becoming embroiled in ideological battles and military alliances.

How things have changed. In recent years, India has moved closer to the United States, even joining the “Quad,” a new security group that also includes Japan and Australia. The United States conducts more military exercises with India than with any other country. And our bilateral trade and investment ties have grown remarkably, with the United States now ranking as India’s largest trading partner.

What explains this change in India’s position? In a word: Chinese. India’s Himalayan border with China remains contested, with the two nuclear-armed powers engaged in deadly skirmishes in 2020. China’s more assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere appears to have convinced leaders of India that a strengthened partnership with the United States and our allies and partners will help counter the growing threat posed by China.

That said, India continues to walk an independent path, which is particularly evident in its dealings with Russia. India has remained neutral in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Modi stated in his June 22 White House remarks that “India has placed an emphasis on resolving disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.”

India remains one of Russia’s biggest buyers of military equipment and has increased its oil purchases as Western sanctions block Russia’s sales to longtime clients in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

But the recent failed military mutiny in Russia, with Wagner’s mercenary troops led by Yevgeniy Prigozhin at one point marching on Moscow, surely gives India’s leaders reason to hedge their bets and avoid leaning too far in Russia’s direction.

While there are many issues that divide us, including India’s growing authoritarian lean, the US and India have very pragmatic reasons to strengthen ties in today’s rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous country, and its economy is expected to dwarf Japan and Germany in size in the coming years. In addition, its sizeable military and location in South Asia with maritime borders stretching from Southeast Asia to the Middle East make it a valuable military partner.

Our shared interest in addressing China’s military assertiveness, supply chain vulnerabilities, climate change and other common challenges means that India and the United States can benefit from a stronger and more stable relationship. While each country will pursue its own interests within the relationship, it is fair to say that the US-India partnership is sure to deepen in the years to come.

I conclude on a personal note. After ten and a half years of writing a monthly column for the Missoulian and Montana Lee newspapers, I have decided to move on to a less regular column, chiming in when I feel a topic particularly deserves comment. I thank all my readers for their loyalty and for their comments and praise along the way. Your interest and feedback have made it very rewarding for me to write articles on national and international developments of importance to us here in Montana and beyond. Until we meet again on these pages, I wish you all the best, now and in the months to come.