Johnson’s moment of lockdown truth looms as announcement on reopening awaited

On the evening of 29 January last year, a 23-year-old Chinese student at the University of York called NHS 111 because he was feeling unwell. The man was staying in a York hotel and was suffering symptoms of Covid-19 – a fever, a dry cough and muscle pain. Along with his parents, who were visiting from Wuhan, where the virus is thought to have originated, the man was picked up by Yorkshire Ambulance Service paramedics wearing hazmat suits and taken to a secure ward at the region’s infectious diseases unit at Castle Hill Hospital, Hull, to be tested.

The next day, the York student and his mother became the UK’s first confirmed cases.

More than a year on, York is still subdued on a half-term Saturday morning that would normally see it heaving with visitors. Covid-19 travel restrictions mean there are almost none, even outside the Minister, the city’s biggest draw.

The market square is a quarter full. Only food is for sale. But it is a focal point nonetheless as shoppers hope more stalls will reopen soon. “People are coming to the market just for something to do. It’s like a day out for them,” says John Cartwright, the manager of Sheila’s fruit and veg stall. “The vaccine seems to be doing well and we’re doing better than most countries. That bit seems to be going really well and there might be a chance of coming out of it now.”

Views of how Boris Johnson’s government has performed are mixed. Esther Smyth, who is a furloughed cafe assistant manager, and her partner Sam Tobin, who works in mental health, are not at all impressed. “I thought the furlough scheme was good but nothing the Tories could have done would have redeemed them to me,” said Smyth. “Eat Out to Help Out was very difficult for us. We were serving 300 customers a day and couldn’t even go for a pint afterwards. There was a series of contradictions.”

Tobin added: “My parents are Tory voters and they say they’re doing their best. But even they’ve gone off them recently.”

But others are less critical and seem buoyed by hope. John Drury, 60, said he was keen to get the vaccine and was definitely feeling more positive. “Some decisions made by the government have not been correct. But it’s such a hard task. I don’t blame them. I’m not a fan of Boris but I do have sympathy for him.”

Paul Dakres, a patent attorney who lives in the city centre, echoed this. “In general, I’m not feeling great,” he said. “But watching the vaccine uptake graph tick up, that’s positive. My parents have now had the vaccine too, which is a relief.”

Compared with last spring and summer when the government blundered from one Covid crisis to the next and crashed in the opinion polls, there is a sense in York – as across much of the country – that the worst may be over.

On Monday in the House of Commons, however, Boris Johnson faces perhaps some of the most difficult choices of the pandemic to date. Which way his government turns could determine not only the course that the virus takes from now on, but also his own and his party’s future in government.

Almost two months into the latest lockdown, infection rates, hospital admissions and death rates from Covid-19 are falling sharply. The rollout of the vaccine is progressing well. Over 15 million people have received their first vaccine dose as spring approaches.

While it may not be saying much, Johnson is arguably having the best phase of his premiership to date. His and his party’s poll ratings have steadied and started to rise, while Labour’s have dipped. Despite the UK having recorded over 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 – one of the worst records of any major country – people around the prime minister believe that, if there are no more mistakes, not only could the virus be bought under control but Johnson’s political fortunes could recover further too.

“There is no doubt the vaccine rollout has reinvigorated him,” says one of his supporters on the Conservative backbenches. “He has lost the drawn look, recovered the bounce. And I think he senses there could be a resilience dividend here.”

Inside government there is, however, a new caution. Many Tory MPs want Johnson to reopen the economy, all schools and social and outdoor life as soon as possible. He is under pressure to act so the economy can fire itself up again and to ensure tens of thousands of businesses and millions of jobs are not lost for ever.

Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, is one of those who wants life to be put back to normal sooner rather than later. He warns grimly of the consequences of carrying on in lockdown, partial or not. “Tardiness in releasing restrictions might be portrayed as caution but it is also acting recklessly with the lives of many others, in particular children and young people whose educational and social development has been damaged so much and who are suffering a dreadful epidemic of mental health problems that may be with us for many years into the future.”

But despite such calls and unlike last summer, when it is now widely agreed ministers unlocked too far too fast, this time ministers seem determined to do the reverse.

“This is the vital moment for Boris,” said a former cabinet minister. “I think he knows that if we go into another lockdown after this one because we get this wrong, then that’s it for him. So he will be overwhelmingly determined not to have that happen. It is a case of ‘Let’s take baby steps now’ so we don’t allow any risk at all of that.”

The same senior Tory said Johnson’s new-found caution had other causes. “This is not just political calculation. I think he has been changed by having a near-death experience with Covid himself. I think it has changed his character. I think he has become a much more cautious human being than he was before.”

On Monday in the House of Commons Johnson is expected to confirm that all schools will return from – if not actually on – 8 March. There is some suggestion that it will be a phased return for different age groups. As Tory MPs insist it must be a big bang return for all, teaching unions worry about Covid safety.

In other areas the easing will be limited. The prime minister is likely to say that outdoor family reunions will be allowed by Easter while care home residents will be able to hold hands with a loved one soon.

But any idea that outdoor sports or mass gatherings will return to normal soon, or that there will be a timetable for fully reopening pubs and restaurants and non-essential shops seems highly unlikely.

What most Tory MPs want is for the prime minister to set out the rules of the process, not target dates. Damian Green, who served as de facto deputy prime minister under Theresa May, said he wanted to hear “detailed criteria of the milestones we need to pass at each stage of unlocking”.

He added: “I don’t want dates but I would very much like to know that if we get infections down to X thousands and hospital admissions down below Y then we can move towards reopening in stages, firstly allowing more social activity or sporting activity, then maybe shops and hairdressers and then hospitality.”

Much if not all scientific opinion would also err on the side of caution. Professor Adam Finn, a paediatrician, of Bristol University warned that the dangers of infection rates rising again were real. “There are still many susceptible people aged between 30 and 60 in the population who have yet to be immunised. If they all start interacting, significant numbers will get infected.

“So we have to be careful, for it is an absolute dead cert that if we relax things too quickly and too extensively there will be another wave of infection and then another lockdown. And you don’t have to be an economist to realise that an economy that opens up and then has to shut down will be a more damaged one than an economy that slowly but progressively opens up.”

Most scientists support the idea of opening up primary schools on 8 March but hesitate over the date of returns for secondary pupils. “There is a lot more scope for much bigger outbreaks in large crowded secondary schools. The unions and teachers are urging caution and I think we should listen to them,” added Finn.

Caution was also urged by the epidemiologist Anne Johnson of University College London. “We’ve seen a big drop in cases, and deaths and admissions but cases are still running at very high levels – around one in 115 people are infected, according to the most recent Office for National Statistics survey. When we came out of lockdown last year, the figures were between one in 250 to one in 500 or more. So although all the indicators are in the right direction, it is still too soon to unlock – for if we open up too quickly there is a danger we could set off another big wave of infections. However, we can see the green shoots of spring beginning to show.”

Johnson added that it was important not to think just about numbers of jabs done each day but to make sure those at highest risk are given priority. “You can see variations in vaccinations in London and in ethnic minorities and that needs to be tackled. We need to get infection rates nice and low and immunity levels raised significantly.”

Professor Stephen Griffin of Leeds University was optimistic that the vaccines could be decisive. “The new data shows vaccines look likely to control transmission as well as lessening disease severity and that is incredibly encouraging,” he said.

As a result, Griffin urged that vaccination should be extended so that children could be given jabs – assuming trials show them to be safe for them. “That would ensure we do not allow Sars-CoV2 to re-establish itself in any great numbers in Britain. The ideal reality that we would then face would be to have a very low level of endemic infection that could be controlled by a variety of measures that would include giving booster vaccines. To risk that future for the sake of extra months’ freedoms would be foolhardy. It would yet unleash waves of Covid outbreaks and I certainly have little appetite for that occurring again.”

For those out on the streets of York yesterday that is one thing upon which everyone could agree. Linda Surplice, who is out running errands, says she wonders how many businesses will survive the current lockdown not to mention another. “We want to be out supporting local businesses and we can’t. It is very quiet which is frightening. You wonder how many shops and cafes won’t recover.”

Lockdown dilemmas

Education

Hopes Children will go back into classrooms on 8 March and students can return to university, and both may eventually be able to mingle freely with friends again.

Hurdles Infections remain most prevalent in children and under-24s. If children contract Covid-19 at school, they may transmit the virus asymptomatically to their families. Students travelling across regions may bring new variants with them, but if socialising is restricted there may be more underground parties.

Retail

Hopes Non-essential retailers will be able to welcome customers back into shops, as will hairdressers and gyms, and eventually restrictions will be removed.

Hurdles Shops are the government’s second priority after schools, but indoor transmission remains the mostly likely vector for Covid-19. Smaller retailers may not be able to provide enough air circulation or fit air conditioning.

Hospitality

Hopes: Bars, pubs and restaurants will reopen in April, initially outside under the rule of six, and ultimately inside without restriction. Nightclubs, theatres, cinemas and concert venues will host events with audiences at a high enough density to make money.

Hurdles: Hospitality is the third priority for ministers, and if transmissions rise after schools and shops open then pubs may be considered too great a risk to the R rate.

Travel

Hopes Foreign holidays will be revived and people will be able to return to the UK, perhaps without quarantine, even if vaccine passports are required.

Hurdles Virus mutations still pose a risk and existing vaccines may be less effective against new variants imported from overseas. Destinations may be restricted unless ministers can persuade other countries that British travellers will not bring the Kent variant.

Sport

Hopes Fans will return for events like the FA Cup final, Euro 2020 and test matches, while clubs will be able to resume grassroots sports for juniors and seniors.

Hurdles Events like the Cheltenham festival and Champions League matches were blamed for the initial spread of Covid-19. Outdoor sports like cricket and football may be less risky for viral transmission than indoor sports.