It is too early to write a requiem for the political survival of Janata Dal (Secular). The group is remarkably energetic in defending its strongholds in the Old Mysuru region and making comebacks. But the 2023 Karnataka assembly election could be different as JD(S) is losing a significant number of critical votes and seats to its main rival, the Congress.
Early trends from the Karnataka Assembly polls suggest that JD(S) may be heading for one of its worst vote shares in a Karnataka assembly election since 1999. According to the Noon Election Commission website, the JD(S)’s vote share stood at 13.1 percent, a drop of more than five percent from 2018. However, it still led with 24 seats, down from the 37 it won five years ago.
In Ramanagarm, near Bangalore, JD(S) candidate Nikhil Kumaraswamy trailed the Congress candidate by 13,000 votes, a seat his father, former CM HD Kumaraswamy, won by more than 20,000 votes in 2018.
JD(S) chief HD Kumaraswamy led by a few thousand votes against the BJP’s CP Yogeshwara in the Channapatana seat. The party trailed the BJP in its rural Tumkur seat, which it had narrowly won in 2018, and in its Gubbi and Sira seats in Congress.
Kolar was witnessing a close three-cornered contest, with JD(S) leading by a slim margin, a seat it won by more than 40,000 votes in 2018. In Madhugiri, a seat it won by a margin of nearly 20,000 in 2018, the JD The (S) candidate lagged behind that of Congress by 7,000 votes. In Chintamani, which had won by almost 5,000 votes in 2018, the Congress candidate had secured a significant lead of more than 10,000 votes over JD(S).
In Shravanabelagola, JD(S)’s CN Balakrishna, who had won the seat by 52,000 votes in 2018, held a slight lead over the Congress candidate. In some of its other JD(S) sitting seats, the JD(S) was leading in Devanahalli (SC) but trailing by 6,000 votes in Neelamangala (SC). However, the JD(S) was leading in some of its strongholds, such as Mandya.
In Melukote, Congress-backed farmer leader Darshan Puttannaiah of Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha led candidate JD(S) by a slim margin. The JD(S) won the seat in 2018, defeating Puttannaiah by 26,000 votes. He was still in Belur and was driving in Holenarsipur where Hardanhalli village is located, the birth place of JD(S) patriarch HD Deve Gowda.
Whether the JD(S) meets a similar fate to its former ally Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will soon be known in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. However, it is clear that the Congress, which has increased his vote share by almost five percent during 2018 he has won at the expense of the JD(S) in several South Karnataka seats.
When criticized for equating the Bajrang Dal with the Popular Front of India and vowing to ban it, potentially provoking a backlash, Congressional strategists argued that it would consolidate minority votes in their favour, especially in seats where the JD( S) hurt him in 2018. Only close analysis would reveal if that has been the case.
But the current vote share of nearly 13 percent is JD(S)’s poorest in two decades. JD(S)’s vote share in the 1999 assembly polls was 10.42 percent, which he contested following the collapse of the Janata Dal government after a split in the party. Janata Dal (United), led by Ramakrishna Hegde, who allied with the BJP, competed with JD(S), led by HD Deve Gowda, for the party’s base of support.
In 2004, the JD(S) made up for lost ground, securing a vote share of almost 21 percent, which fell slightly to 19 percent in 2008 and increased to 20.2 percent with 40 seats in 2013. In 2018, the JD(S) won 37 seats with a vote share of 18.3 percent, maintaining its strength in its stronghold of Old Mysuru and picking up seats in other regions.
In the run up to the 2023 Assembly elections, HD Kumaraswamy had embarked on an ambitious “Pancharatna Yatra” blanketing his strongholds. Kanakpura MLA DK Shivakumar, aspiring Chief Minister and Vokkaliga, led the Congress campaign in the Old Mysuru region.