K’taka Polls: Most Exit Polls fail, one gets Cong Victory Scale correct

Most of the exit polls missed the mark in predicting an outright victory for Congress in the Karnataka assembly polls, although some of them were right on that count and only India Today-Axis My India correctly forecast the exit polls. victory ladder.

Interestingly, it was the main leader of the Congress, DK Shivakumar, whose prediction that the Congress would win at least 141 seats in an interview with the PTI earlier this week was very close to the actual figure of 135 won by his party.

In the results declared on Saturday, the Congress won 135 seats while the BJP finished with 65. The JD(S), the third player in the race, won 19 seats in the 224-member assembly, while two seats were won by Independent, two were won by regional parties. He was still counted in a seat, where Congress was leading.

In its exit poll released after the May 10 vote, India Today-Axis My India predicted a clear majority for Congress with 122-140 seats and gave the BJP 62-80 seats. It gave 20-25 seats to the JD(S).

News 24-Today’s Chanakya also foresees a majority for the Congress with 120 seats with a margin of error of plus-minus 11 seats, against 92 seats for the BJP and 12 for the JD(S). Times Now-ETG exit polls gave Congress 113 seats and the BJP 85. He predicted 23 seats for JD(S).

India TV-CNX exit polls gave the Congress 110-120 seats and the BJP 80-90 seats. They forecast 20-24 seats for the JD(S).

There were also several surveys that predicted the possibility of a hanging house.

While ABP News-C voter exit poll had predicted Congress to win 100-112 seats, BJP 83-95, JD(S) 21-29, Republic TV-P MARQ predicted Congress to win 94-108 seats. , the BJP 85-100 and JD(S) 24-32.

The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll indicated that the Congress was likely to win 99-109 seats, the BJP 88-98 and the JD(S) 21-26 while Zee News-Matrize Agency predicted the Congress to win 103 -118. , the BJP 79-94 and the JD(S) 25-33.

Two polls have also indicated the possibility of the BJP winning a majority.

The News Nation-CGS poll said the BJP would win 114 seats, the Congress 86 and the JD(S) 21. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat forecast the BJP would likely win 94-117, the Congress 91-106 and the JD (S) 14-24.

In the 2018 assembly elections, BJP emerged as the largest party winning 104 seats out of 224, followed by Congress with 80 and JD(S) with 37. There was one independent member, while BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janata Party (KPJP) had one legislator each.