Lukashenko faces Belarusian opposition ultimatum

MINSK — Sunday is supposed to be Alexander Lukashenko’s last day in office.

Two weeks ago, Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya gave the authoritarian leader until Sunday night to leave his post, threatening to unleash nationwide strikes if he doesn’t go.

“I know, transport workers and employees of the Belarusian railways, teachers and students are planning strikes and campaigns of disobedience. I know that private business will support [them],” Tikhanovskaya, who was touring European capitals, said in a statement on Friday afternoon.

“Athletes, artists, doctors and religious communities will organize their support actions. This is how the first week of the national strike will begin,” she added.

However, Lukashenko is showing no sign that he’s ready to give up.

“We’ve already said we will not give the country away,” Lukashenko told a group of government officials earlier this week. The police and army are still solidly behind him.

But domestic and international pressure against Lukashenko is continuing. The Belarusian leader and his top aides are targeted by international sanctions, and almost three months after the flawed August 9 election, massive street protests aren’t stopping. Every weekend huge crowds march in Minsk, despite occasional violent crackdowns by police.

That poses a huge problem for Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994.

“In the past, Lukashenko has repeatedly acted like he owns this country and its people. However, this is no longer the issue. The citizens do not agree with this anymore,” Alexander Dobrovolsky, a veteran opposition politician and newly appointed senior political adviser to Tikhanovskaya, told POLITICO. “And no matter what he wants, he can’t govern the country when there is neither respect for him, nor trust, nor consent.”

Tikhovskaya laid out the next steps if Lukashenko ignores the ultimatum.

If three demands — Lukashenko’s resignation, stopping violence and releasing political prisoners — are not met, “all enterprises” will begin to strike, “all roads will be blocked” and “all state-owned stores will see their sales dry up” due to a popular boycott, she said two weeks ago.

The next days will be a test of Tikhanovskaya’s authority at home. Abroad, she is often treated as president-elect, but she has been out of the country since August, fleeing for Lithuania after being threatened by the regime.

Almost all other opposition leaders are also abroad or in prison, and the huge protests are largely spontaneous and don’t depend on Tikhanovskaya or other opposition figures for organization 

If the ultimatum is a flop, that could strengthen Lukashenko’s hand against the opposition.

“Of course, it was a risky step. The same as any other major move during a conflict. Say, in wartime,” Dobrovolsky said. “Anyone who wants to achieve something should take risks.”

Although Lukashenko has avoided mentioning Tikhanovskaya and the strike threats, public media has been filled with interviews with government officials and state enterprise bosses warning of the harm caused by strikes. 

In a bid to allay those fears, Tikhanovskaya promised crowdfunded financial support to anyone fired for striking. She also called on the police to abandon Lukashenko. 

Even if Lukashenko is still in office after Monday, that doesn’t mean he can rest easy.

“The protests have not subsided for a third consecutive month. Naturally, they were more emotional in the early days,” Dobrovolsky said. “But people will keep coming out.”