Many candidates for position of Netanyahu’s chief rival

Sep 4, 2020

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ratings have been plunging in recent months, especially over the farcical handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his poor performance in managing the crisis. Within weeks, Netanyahu’s Likud lost the equivalent of 10-13 Knesset seats (out of 120) in the polls, but his alignment of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties still commands at least 60 seats.

The bloc is holding steady because rather than migrating to the political center-left, disenchanted Netanyahu voters are moving to the right, to Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, which is soaring in the polls. Opposition head Yair Lapid, chair of the centrist Yesh Atid party, who should have been sweeping up Netanyahu and Likud leavers, is hardly benefitting from the shift. His party is stuck in the polls at 19 seats, the record it obtained in the 2013 elections when Lapid first ran, and has been unable to break through this glass ceiling.

On Sept. 2, Lapid sustained an additional, surprising and particularly painful blow, when his partner, friend and perennial No. 2, one of the party’s leading lawmakers, Ofer Shelah, demanded that primaries be held for the Yesh Atid leadership and announced his intention to challenge Lapid and beat him. The public and pundits were taken aback by this “September surprise” given the seemingly firm and stable front the party has displayed since its founding eight years ago.

Lapid and Shelah have been friends since the late 1980s, when they both worked as journalists for the Maariv newspaper. They have since maintained a close relationship. Over the years, Shelah has made major concessions to accommodate his unwavering loyalty to Lapid, and no one thought he would be the one to rebel and demand a process of democratization in the party that Lapid shaped and commanded that has consistently marched to his tune.

Lapid was the only one who was not truly surprised. His complex relationship with Shelah has known many vicissitudes, but the two always washed their dirty laundry at home. Lapid was familiar with Shelah’s doubts about the party’s path and had heard harsh criticism from him over time.

On Aug. 31, Shelah arrived at Lapid’s home for a meeting that turned out to be one of the toughest in their history. Shelah told Lapid that Yesh Atid — Hebrew for “There is a future” — has no future. It was in a rut and failing to offer anything fresh and different with which to draw additional voters, Shelah argued, pointing out that Bennett was the main beneficiary of the windfall from Netanyahu’s decline whereas the head of the Knesset opposition was stuck in place. A true democratic process and leadership primaries would be the only solution to the party’s stagnation, Shelah insisted. Lapid promised to consider Shelah’s demands, but barely two days later, Shelah went public on Twitter, Facebook and TV, suggesting he did not have faith in Lapid’s promise. A longstanding partnership had come to a screeching end.

Shelah’s most powerful argument against Lapid was reflected in two recent frontal assaults by Netanyahu on the Yesh Atid leader from the Knesset podium. Netanyahu mounted one of his two attacks when he was not even scheduled to address the plenary but asked for permission to do so. Shelah claims Netanyahu is intent on painting Lapid as his chief rival, with good reason. He knows Lapid is the easiest opponent to target. His anti-clerical views have made him deeply unpopular with the ultra-Orthodox parties and he is not particularly popular with the Arab parties, either. His ability to challenge Netanyahu is therefore limited. Shelah, on the other hand, enjoys excellent relations with both the ultra-Orthodox and Arabs, and believes he stands a better chance than the disabled opposition leader whose hands are tied.

For now, Lapid is trying to contain the crisis. He is still hoping Shelah will back off somehow from his ultimatum. If worse comes to worse, Lapid will agree to hold primaries and win. Still, a considerable number of the party founders have left Lapid since he first set out. Former head of the Shin Bet security agency Yaakov Peri was forced to step down over a scandal involving his military service. His friend, confidant and adviser Rabbi Shai Piron left politics after the party’s 2015 election losses. Former Mayor of Herzliya Yael German left due to ill-health. An additional Knesset member — Adi Kol — was pushed out after being deemed insufficiently loyal to Lapid. If he loses Shelah, as well, Lapid could turn into a type of Netanyahu, who has been chasing away confidants, partners and supporters for decades.

Knesset member Ofer Shelah, 60, appears cast in Lapid’s mold, but on closer inspection, he is substantively different. Both are Tel Aviv liberals who enjoy the good life, quality whiskey, American culture and politics. Unlike Lapid, who did his compulsory military service as a journalist for the army’s Bamahaneh newspaper, Shelah was a paratrooper, an officer, who saw action in Lebanon, was severely wounded, losing an eye and having his face disfigured. Unlike Lapid, who barely graduated high school, Shelah is a university graduate who studied in the United States. He is a deep and serious thinker, displaying excellent political skills, particularly in his role as Yesh Atid’s key Knesset operator. The runoff between the two former friends, which is supposed to turn the party that Lapid tailored to his measurements into a democratic body, will be particularly fascinating.

The political map beyond Yesh Atid is also turbulent, shifting almost daily. Two key players are warming up on the benches — Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, who has already announced his intention to run in national politics ahead of the next elections, and former army Chief Lt. Gen. (Res.) Gadi Eizenkot, who is also weighing his options. Lapid has told associates that Shelah’s decision to maneuver for a spot in the score zone may have been motivated by Huldai’s apparent bid for leadership of the political center-left. Either way, until the center-left comes up with a clear leader who overtakes all the other contenders for the title, Benjamin Netanyahu can sleep well.