Matching new-look Blue Jays lineup vs. AL East’s top arms

It remains to be seen if the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays are more successful than their 2022 counterparts, but they are more versatile.

The team has significantly more left-right balance in the lineup, and it’s added multiple position players capable of playing centre field. Daulton Varsho even gives them an option behind the dish.

There may still be another position player or two who gets added to the mix as we get closer to the season, too.

In order to get a feel for a group of position players with more diverse skills than the team has featured recently, we thought we’d play around with some lineups.

More specifically, to test the idea that this group is more flexible, we decided to draw up its best possible lineups to face the AL East’s five most intimating starters: Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, Carlos Rodón, Tyler Glasnow and Luis Severino.

(You could also make a case for Chris Sale or Nestor Cortes Jr., but these are the five we’re launching this thought experiment with.)

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Before we roll out the lineup cards, here’s what you need to know:

• The player pool is everyone on FanGraphs’ Roster Resource depth chart, with the exception of Nathan Lukes, who doesn’t have an MLB track record.

• George Springer always goes in the leadoff spot — you could make a case for him to go lower, but there’s no evidence the Blue Jays are interested in using him in any other role.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are always pencilled in for top-four spots in the lineup. Unless either is in a serious funk, it’s unlikely they’ll drop lower.

• No one plays a position they didn’t play last year at the MLB level.

• Many of the numbers you’ll see in this article are from the last three years because when we’re dealing with splits against different pitch types or velocity samples, it can be too small to take much from in single seasons.

With that in mind, here we go:

Gerrit Cole

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 97.8 mph

2022 pitch mix: Four-seam fastball (51.9%), Slider (22.6%), Curveball (10.8%), Changeup (8.4%), Cutter (6.4%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF George Springer

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

SS Bo Bichette

LF Daulton Varsho

C Alejandro Kirk

3B Matt Chapman

DH Brandon Belt

2B Whit Merrifield

CF Kevin Kiermaier

Rationale: Because Cole uses a varied pitch mix, the main qualities we’re looking for in hitters to counter him are guys who are capable of handling the heat.

Varsho gets a nod in the cleanup spot because he has by far the best wOBA on the team against 97-plus-mph pitches over the last three seasons (.446). We’ve got Guerrero Jr. at second because it’s a slightly more important lineup position than his usual third — and he’s handled Cole well in the past.

Kirk is a better high-velo hitter than Chapman, so he gets the nod for a higher spot. Merrifield is probably the next bet as a guy who’s capable of handling the heat with a solid 6-for-17 against Cole.

He falls to split up the lefties, who could be in trouble.

Belt has struggled with velo of Cole’s calibre with a .196 wOBA, but Danny Jansen is at .198 and so we’ll roll with the platoon advantage and avoid going with two catchers. Kiermaier is 5-for-34 against Cole, but removing him means going to Cavan Biggio or Santiago Espinal.

Biggio has two home runs against Cole, but he’s also struck out more than half the time and struggles with heat. Espinal isn’t that much better against elite velo, and isn’t great against right-handers overall.

Leaving Kiermaier is a bit of a punt on offence, but most teams don’t have nine good options against Cole, and his glove is valuable.

Shane McClanahan

Throws: Left

Four-seam fastball velocity: 96.7 mph

2022 pitch mix: Four-seam fastball (35.7%), Changeup (25.4%), Curveball (23.4%),

Slider (15.5%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

SS Bichette

DH Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr.

3B Chapman

2B Espinal

LF Merrifield

C Jansen

CF Varsho

Rationale: Bichette moves up to the two-hole here as his wRC+ against southpaws (141) is better than Vladdy’s (131) over the last three years.

Espinal gets a prominent spot based on his solid 125 wRC+ against lefties over the same time span. It’s a better number than Chapman’s (117), but the sample is smallish and the third baseman’s power looks better in the middle of the lineup.

This is a situation where the Blue Jays’ need for another right-handed bat becomes apparent.

In order to sit Kiermaier — who struggles against 96-plus-mph fastballs, and hits has a team-low .204 wOBA against lefty sliders (McClanahan’s second-favourite pitch for left-handed hitters) — you have to play Varsho, who has a career 66 wRC+ vs. southpaws.

Jansen also finds himself in this lineup despite a dubious record against lefties with a career 83 wRC+.

Kiermaier needs to sit, using Belt at DH against a high-velo lefty doesn’t seem enticing and Biggio’s bat doesn’t play against tough lefties — so the team has very little choice.

A right-handed hitter with the ability to play the outfield would go a long way for matchups like this.

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Carlos Rodón

Throws: Left

Four-seam fastball velocity: 95.5 mph

2022 pitch mix: Four-seam fastball (61.2%), Slider (31.1%), Curveball (5.7%), Changeup (2.0%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

SS Bichette

DH Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr.

3B Chapman

LF Merrifield

2B Espinal

C Jansen

CF Kiermaier

Rationale: Rodón is a different flavour of southpaw than McClanahan, with a little less velocity and a more condensed pitch mix.

There are only two moves to make here from the previous alignment. First, Merrifield leaps over Espinal due to his exceptional track record against Rodón (10-for-25), which comes from a small sample, but is strong enough to give him an edge.

We’re also going to flip Varsho for Kiermaier in part because Rodón’s heat isn’t as intense as McClanahan.

Kiermaier has a slightly better wOBA (.273) against lefty fastballs and sliders than Varsho (.271) over the last three years, and Rodòn throws those two pitches to same-handed hitters 96.5 per cent of the time.

That’s an extremely small difference, but this exercise was always going to involve splitting some hairs.

Tyler Glasnow

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 97.4 mph

2021 pitch mix (Glasnow pitched just 6.2 innings in 2022): Four-seam fastball (51.6%), Slider (32.3%), Curveball (13.5%), Changeup (2.5%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

1B Guerrero Jr.

SS Bichette

DH Belt

C Kirk

LF Varsho

3B Chapman

2B Merrifield

CF Kiermaier

Rationale: Glasnow presents the same velocity issue as Cole, but he’s more breaking-ball focused, throwing sliders and curveballs nearly half of the time.

His inclination to use the soft stuff has Belt cleaning up as he’s by far the Blue Jays’ best hitter against right-handed breaking balls.

In fact, since 2020, his .420 wOBA against righty sliders and curveballs ranks second in the majors among all hitters with at least 2,500 pitches seen, behind only Mike Trout.

Other than featuring Belt as the top lefty bat over Varsho, there aren’t many significant alterations from the Cole lineup.

You could make an argument for Jansen here due to a slightly better track record against breaking stuff, but Glasnow is more fastball-heavy against right-handers, and Kirk’s knack for making contact with elite velocity ought to stay in the lineup.

This seems like it would be a spot to incorporate Biggio, but we’re scared off by the fact he’s struck out in five of seven appearances against Glasnow. Meanwhile, Merrifield is 3-for-6.

That’s probably small-sample-size nonsense, but this alignment keeps left-right balance in the bottom of the lineup.

Biggio is always handy to have on the bench due to his ability to exploit pitchers with command issues, pinch run and play multiple positions.

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Luis Severino

Throws: Right

Four-seam fastball velocity: 96.3 mph

2022 pitch mix: Four-seam fastball (48.1%), Changeup (22.4%), Slider (21.1%), Cutter (7.3%), Sinker (1.1%)

Preferred Blue Jays lineup:

RF Springer

1B Guerrero Jr.

SS Bichette

CF Varsho

3B Chapman

DH Belt

C Jansen

2B Biggio

LF Merrifield

Rationale: Severino has the lowest fastball rate of any of these pitchers, which would normally bump Belt up, but he throws heaters 56.1 per cent of time to left-handed bats and 42.6 per cent to righties.

What same-handed hitters see is more than 50 per cent of the time is a combo of sliders, changeups and cutters. Jansen’s wOBA against those pitches from righties (.338) is significantly better than Kirk’s (.298) since 2020, so the All-Star takes a seat.

This is another must-sit spot for Kiermaier, who is 3-for-30 in his career against Severino with 13 strikeouts.

Kiermaier’s absence results in the first start for Biggio here. Espinal struggles against the secondary stuff Severino likes to throw to right-handers, and Merrifield is a better outfield option by career OAA, so he winds up at the keystone.

Conclusions

Playing this out shows us a couple of things.

The first is that the Blue Jays could really use another right-handed outfielder for matchups with tough lefties — and to help give Springer the odd day off, a variable that isn’t considered above.

Merrifield is also surprisingly hard to take off the field because he’s good against southpaws, solid against high-velocity and positionally versatile.

Because the five pitchers above all bring significant heat, Biggio’s role is likely understated in these mock-ups, but he should have plenty of playing time at second base.

Espinal may struggle to find playing time against righties, though, as there’s usually a better case for Merrifield or Biggio in those matchups.

This team may not be complete, but even if it is, it’s clear that manager John Schneider has more ways to move his players around than he did last season.

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