The long period between takeoff and landing on a transatlantic flight can be a scientific marvel, but also so boring that you have to tune into in-flight entertainment to find the determination to get through it. As long as the pilots know what they are doing and the structural engineering of the plane is sound, this is the least eventful part of the flight, where everyone seems to be going through the motions until it’s time for the part where people really worry. If halfway there it is discovered that the plane does not have enough fuel to reach its destination, no one needs to get excited about the movies offered on the entertainment system; It turns out that many things can be extremely boring if done right.
In the 20th over of Sri Lanka’s chase, Pakistan captain Babar Azam turned to Iftikhar Ahmed, a man with nine ODI wickets so far in his career, at a time in the game when wickets were the only hope of Pakistan to participate again. Commentators on the broadcast made no attempt to hide their surprise and disapproval at that decision, as Iftikhar was helpful without actually threatening.
Towards the end of the innings, as the game reached its climax, the same announcers debated among themselves whether it should be Shaheen Afridi or Iftikhar who bowled their maximum quota of nine overs. It is often tempting to put the blame on Pakistan’s captain as his strategic intelligence remains a topic of open debate. But a pilot can only work with the machine assigned to him. Sometimes there is more to Pakistan’s ODI shortcomings than Babar’s captaincy.
The absence of Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf has invariably weakened Pakistan’s options to remedy this, but Pakistan’s middle problems, as seen in this Asia Cup, predate their injuries. In every game of this tournament, apart from the Nepal match, Pakistan has reached a middle phase where the bowling looked toothless and mediocre, and the momentum had changed hands. Against India in Round 1, Pakistan were wicketless for 23.2 overs between the 15th and 38th overs, for 20 overs between the 10th and 30th overs against Bangladesh, from the 18th over in their second game with India, and from 14 to 30 onwards. against Sri Lanka in the match that ultimately eliminated them.
Pakistan’s specialist bowlers Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz have combined for two wickets in this four-game spell. Shadab has conceded 218 runs in 35 overs in this time, part of a wider trend where his unquestionable T20 brilliance has not translated into ODI quality. And as Sri Lanka themselves have shown this week, good luck trying to win a tournament in that country with a spin attack like that.
Still, Sri Lanka is a daunting matchup for any team struggling to take middle wickets. Since the 2019 World Cup, only Bangladesh and England have scored a lower percentage of their runs in the top flight than Sri Lanka among teams attending the World Cup. The first three contribute only 43.58% of their careers. Charith Asalanka is Pakistan’s statistical kryptonite; None of the number five batsmen or below has scored more ODI runs in the two years since their debut. He and Sri Lanka are at their strongest at the precise point where Pakistan is at its weakest: across that middle ground.
The lingering suspicion about Pakistan’s ODI setup in this World Cup cycle has been how closely intertwined everything is and how little it would take for it all to be undone in one go. Pakistan have made their streaks with a top three set, which have contributed 58.33% of all their streaks since the previous World Cup. No other side comes close to using their top order as a crutch to this point; Afghanistan, which is in second place, is far behind at 52.27%. At the same time, they need their back three (Shaheen, Naseem and Haris) for the majority of their wickets, and Shadab Khan as the generational all-rounder they believe he can still become. When everything works together, they have seven match-winners in their side, and it worked enough to help them rise to the top of the ODI rankings last month.
While everything seemed fine a week ago, the breakdown came just as quickly. Fakhar Zaman’s scores have always had a feast-or-famine vibe, so a dry spell, even a prolonged one like this, isn’t inherently alarming. But not only is he averaging 19 in his last ten innings, the explosive power that made him so feared also appears to have disappeared, with his strike rate during this period falling to 65.51 and failing to reach 90 in any of those innings. Had Imam-ul-Haq not retired late with a problem, Fakhar was scheduled to be left out of the winner-take-all match against Sri Lanka. As he chased four off 11 balls, one could see why. Babar too (excluding the Nepal match) has had an indifferent Asia Cup, although this is more likely a statistical problem.
A combination of half a dozen match-winners and almost as many journeymen in the middle had been held together by quality at both ends, but as the limbs weakened in this Asia Cup, the underbelly showed. . Pakistan has approximately fifteen days to put everything back exactly as it was.
There are enough mitigating factors to make drawing conclusions from this Asia Cup particularly challenging, especially since Pakistan has racked up more air miles than rain delays in this tournament. But for a team that celebrated the number one ranking less than three weeks ago, this is a good reminder that no one is as invincible as they might feel in ODI cricket.
This strange combination of half a dozen match-winners and almost the same number of journeymen in the middle had been held together by quality at both ends, but as the limbs weakened in this Asia Cup, the underbelly became He showed. Pakistan has about a fortnight to put everything back exactly as it was, because there is simply no longer time to effectively address the problems in the middle. But Pakistan has made surprise from positions of adversity a national identity in cricket, so every time we get halfway through a Pakistan match in the World Cup, the latter is likely to be boring.
Danyal Rasool is Pakistan correspondent for ESPNcricinfo. @danny61000
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