May 4, 2024
‘Probably the last chance’ for Gaza cease-fire deal, Middle East expert tells DW
DW spoke with Middle East expert Daniel Gerlach about the ongoing negotiations to reach a deal between Israel and Hamas.
He called the talks “probably the last chance that with this constellation, with the involvement of Egypt, Qatar and the United States, a hostage deal can be negotiated.”
He said “everyone is very serious about the proposal,” pointing to the increased pressure on Israel from the US, the presence of a Hamas delegation in Cairo and the visit by the head of the Egyptian national intelligence agency, Abbas Kamel, to Israel.
“There are great expectations, but also a high degree of frustration,” he said, adding that — according to Qatari mediators — both Israel and Hamas have “sabotaged” earlier attempts to reach a cease-fire.
Some Arab countries are discussing evacuating “parts of the Hamas leadership to another Arab country,” with Algeria being put forward as a suggestion.
“However, I think the Israelis need some sort of a symbolic victory image that proves they have won the war,” he added, suggesting that this could be the capture or killing of Yehya Sinwar, the head of the Hamas leadership in Gaza.
Gerlach also said Hamas’ leadership is divided between members of its political wing based in Doha, Qatar — who have been “threatened to be kicked out of Doha if the deal fails” — and the military wing led by Sinwar, who are fearing for their lives.
“They know that even if they get expatriated, the Israelis will hunt them down,” Gerlach said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israeli forces will enter Rafah regardless of any deal but has also shown willingness to allow shared management of Gaza.
“But everyone knows in Israel, in the region, and the most in the United States, that Benjamin Netanyahu changes his mind and has a very tactical relationship to truth and his commitments,” Gerlach told DW.
If the negotiations fail again, “many people in Israel will come to the conclusion that the release of the hostages is not the priority on the government side,” while “Arab negotiators will realize Hamas is actually not willing to release the hostages.”
“I think it will break down the entire negotiation mechanism that we have now,” he added.