The international community has drastically overestimated the size of Myanmar’s army, a US-based think tank said on Friday, suggesting its victory over the country’s armed opposition is no longer a foregone conclusion.
Estimates prior to the February 1, 2021 coup put the military strength of Myanmar, an opaque entity also known as the Tatmadaw, at 300,000-400,000. But a analysis released Friday by the US Institute of Peace, or USIP, states that the estimates are based on “unreliable data” and posits that the current number is “almost certainly no more than half the baseline.” historical”.
Ye Myo Hein, a USIP visiting scholar in Washington, concludes that the military currently numbers about 150,000 personnel, including approximately 70,000 serving as combat soldiers, while at least 21,000 service members have been lost to casualties. , defections and defections since the coup. .
Estimates are based on interviews with deserters and deserters, internal directives, historical records of troop movements and sizes, and casualty counts from primary conflict data and military hospital records.
“At this level of troops, Sit-Tat can barely sustain itself as a fighting force, let alone a government,” said Ye Myo Hein, using another name for the Myanmar military.
With only a fraction of the country’s armed forces serving as combat soldiers, Ye Myo Hein said the junta should no longer be assumed to overcome resistance and consolidate its rule.
“Therefore, the international community should stop engaging with the junta as if it were destined to win and was the only relevant player to achieve stability,” he said.
Ye Myo Hein said that such a compromise only “reinforces the delusion of the generals” that they will eliminate the opposition and “delays the time until the junta comes to the table” to negotiate.
defections, defections
Not only is the size of the armed forces smaller than previously thought, the author said, but the post-coup rebellion is “exacerbating the deficit in fighting forces.”
Ye Myo Hein said that the conscription delay, desertions and defections are devastating the army. He cited sources who estimate that some 10,000 military and police officers have gone over to the resistance, while the shadow National Unity Government puts the figure at more than 12,300. Some 8,000 soldiers are believed to have deserted or deserted since the coup.
Although estimates vary, the NUG believes around 20,000 junta combat soldiers have been killed since the coup, while analysts say the number killed or seriously injured in the past two years is between 10,000 and 15,000.
Meanwhile, Ye Myo Hein said, the military is actively working to hide and falsify data on its numbers “at all levels,” further complicating any effort to determine the strength of the institution.
Friday’s analysis cited a former army adjutant officer who acknowledged that his primary duties included falsifying data on deserters from his battalion, prior to their desertion. He said the number of deserters was so high that his battalion commander asked him not to submit the full list, lest he face charges or lose his chance for promotion.
“The frequency of data manipulation was so high that even I was confused about the actual military strength of my battalion,” he said.
As a result of dwindling numbers, Myanmar’s generals have been forced to play a military game of “hit a mole” with resources, redeploying support corps and other inexperienced personnel to the front lines, often with disastrous results. The military has also increasingly relied on air operations to make up for mounting losses on the ground, causing widespread destruction and civilian deaths.
Ye Myo Hein said the Myanmar military is now “in its weakest and most vulnerable position”, adding that what remains of its “mirage of strength” is rapidly disintegrating in the face of resistance and “unprecedented public hatred”. .
“It is time for the international community, particularly those in the Myanmar region, to take a hard look at assumptions about Sit-Tat’s strength, acknowledge that the emperor is naked, and recalibrate their approach to this conflict,” he said. saying.
military bases under attack
Friday’s analysis came days after the NUG Defense Ministry claimed anti-junta forces had attacked the army’s regional headquarters, bases and camps at least 70 times in the first four months of 2023 alone. Of those attacks, 44 were successful, the ministry said.
NUG Defense Secretary Naing Htoo Aung told RFA Burmese that such attacks are not aimed at seizing control of the bases, but “to destroy them or have a psychological impact on the junta troops.”
In one such attack, on March 31, a combined force of area Popular Defense Force paramilitaries raided a police post in Kan village in the Magway region, in which anti-junta fighters they took 75% of the outpost before the military sent reinforcements, forcing them to withdraw.
A PDF official in Gangaw township, where Kan is located, told RFA that the outpost in the town was the junta’s “strongest base” in the region.
“Since we have already raided it, attacking the other two small police posts in the city will be a piece of cake for us,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity citing security concerns. “We are no longer afraid of air raids (when we attack them) because if they attack their outposts, their men will also die.”
The PDF official claimed that up to 40 junta soldiers were killed during the raid, while only two members of the resistance groups were killed and nine wounded. RFA was unable to independently verify the claims.
RFA’s attempts to contact the Junta’s Deputy Information Minister, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, for comment on the military base raids went unanswered.
More raids are expected
Political analyst Than Soe Naing said the NUG hopes to change the balance of military dynamics in Myanmar this year, suggesting that there will be more incursions by armed resistance groups into such strategic targets in the future.
“From such incursions, anti-regime armed groups can gain more territory from which to organize further military activities,” he said. “I hope there will be more attacks (on junta bases) because (the resistance) can seize much-needed weapons and ammunition during those attacks.”
In its second anniversary report on May 3, the NUG claimed that anti-junta forces have killed more than 30,000 junta soldiers and wounded more than 10,000 since the coup.
According to the report, more than 300 local defense force regiments have been formed in more than 250 municipalities across the country.
Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.
Discover more from PressNewsAgency
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.