Nagorno-Karabakh catastrophe fuels anger against Armenian leader

YEREVAN, Armenia — A crowd of protesters poured into the central square of the Armenian capital on Wednesday night, first as small groups, mingling with families eating ice cream on benches, but then as a vast sea of ​​angry faces.

Heavily armored riot police formed an iron cordon around the government building, whose windows were already shattered by bricks thrown during a demonstration the previous night. Chants of support were heard for the ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijani troops launched a lightning offensive the previous day. Others in the crowd – a few thousand people – called for Armenia’s embattled prime minister, liberal reformer Nikol Pashinyan, to resign over the defeat and bloodshed.

The overriding fear is that many of the enclave’s 100,000 Armenians will be expelled through ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijani forces.

“The biggest problem is our prime minister, because he is not doing anything to save lives and Azerbaijan is committing genocide,” said Van, a 36-year-old from Yerevan. “They’re washing their hands.”

Pashinyan was commander-in-chief in 2020, when Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bloody 44-day conflict over separatist territory, within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but controlled since a war that followed the fall of the Soviet Union by its population. ethnic Armenian. Armenian forces lost swaths of territory, forcing them to rely on Russian peacekeepers to maintain the status quo.

However, with Moscow stalled on its full invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has tightened its control over Nagorno-Karabakh. First came a months-long blockade of aid supplies reaching the region and then, on Tuesday morning, a blitzkrieg of tanks, troops and artillery fire. And, on Wednesday, the territory’s leaders said they had been forced to accept a Surrender agreement negotiated by Moscow.

one day war

This time, Pashinyan has been desperate for the Armenian state not to be dragged into the fighting, despite his deep support for Karabakh Armenians. On Tuesday night, as fighting broke out once again in the region, the prime minister said he would not allow internal or external forces to “drag the Republic of Armenia into military operations.”

Outnumbered and outgunned by Azerbaijani troops, who have been trained and equipped by their allies Turkey and Israel, another war could pose a profound threat to Armenia’s existence, particularly after Azerbaijani troops took control of strategic points. high within their borders. during an invasion last September.

For many Armenians, however, Pashinyan’s stance is not good enough.

“This, right here, is a genocide alert,” said Aspram Krpeyan, an opposition parliamentarian who participated in Wednesday night’s protests. “We must form a proper government that serves the Armenian nation and only the Armenian nation.”

But while criticism is omnipresent, alternatives are few, and beyond tendering his resignation, few can say what they want Pashinyan to do next.

In recent months, the Armenian government has sought to achieve a historic break with Russia amid concerns that it is no longer a reliable security guarantor. The country sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time, invited American soldiers to joint exercises and withdrew its representative from the Moscow-led CSTO military bloc. in a interview with POLITICO Last week, Pashinyan said Moscow’s peacekeepers had “failed” in their duties.

Now, the Kremlin seeks to blame the latest round of hostilities on Armenia’s increasingly pro-Western leader.

in a document obtained on Wednesday by the independent Russian news site Meduza, the country’s state media was instructed to point the finger at Pashinyan and his partners in the United States and the EU. Meanwhile, Armenia’s pro-Russian opposition parties are wasting no time. vocation a “provisional government” to oversee the crisis.

Pro-Russian politicians in Armenia are trying to generate political capital from the military disaster, but there is very little practical support that Russia seems able to provide now. “Even if there were some kind of attempted regime change or coup that brought a more pro-Russian faction to power, I just don’t see how they would maintain power given the complete sense of disillusionment with Moscow’s role in Nagorno-Karabakh.” said Laurence Broers, an expert on the conflict at Chatham House. “But that doesn’t mean there won’t be explosions of frustration.”

let down

Even Pashinyan’s own Foreign Ministry, which has spent years building stronger relations with Western capitals, could not hide a sense of betrayal. Edmon Marukyan, Yerevan’s special ambassador, posted an image of the chaos unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh, saying “you tolerate this” and naming top US and EU leaders, including European Council President Charles Michel , and Brussels’ top diplomat, Josep. Borrell.

The EU is especially cautious about its diplomatic interventions in Armenia, having called authoritarian Baku a key ally to help provide alternative gas supplies to Russia.

Meanwhile, fears of ethnic cleansing are growing, with Russia claiming to have “evacuated” up to 2,000 Armenians from Karabakh, although it has not said where. In Stepanakert, the region’s de facto capital, thousands of people packed their bags and fled to the headquarters of Russian peacekeepers at a disused airport on the outskirts of the city, but those on the ground say no. They have not received food, water or a route to a safe place. .

Azerbaijan insists it is not trying to provoke a mass exodus, but has not presented plans for the peaceful integration of Karabakh Armenians. Everyone who had lived in territory captured by Azerbaijani forces in 2020 was forced to escape ahead of the arriving armies. In some cases, such as that of a elderly couple left behindThey were reportedly executed and their bodies mutilated. This, combined with the initiative of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev show off having “expelled them from our lands like dogs,” means that many doubt that they can continue living in the mountainous area if it remains under the control of their forces.

According Armenian officialsAs of Thursday afternoon at least 200 people had been killed and 400 wounded in the offensive. Social media channels are filled with people searching for their missing relatives, many of them from rural areas of Nagorno-Karabakh, where lines of communication have been cut.

“I’m here because my family is being attacked,” said Daniella, 20, a student from Stepanakert who joined the protests. “They hide in basements without food, without water. “I don’t think the Armenians can do anything, they have done everything they could.”

If full-blown ethnic cleansing is to be avoided, he said, other countries – whether Russia, the United States or EU nations – must now step forward. “But they don’t do anything. They talk, they say words, but where are their actions?”