Nagorno-Karabakh crisis raises serious questions for Russia and the West

A short-lived military operation in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region appears to have paved the way for Azerbaijan to take full control of a separatist enclave that has endured more than three decades of conflict.

The latest escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia generates a conflict that is often overlooked is once again in the global spotlight and dramatically raising fears of major unrest across the Caucasus.

The disputed mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but has been under de facto Armenian control since the early 1990s.

The landlocked territory of the South Caucasus declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 and, with the support of Armenia, has fought two wars with Azerbaijan in the space of 30 years. About 120,000 ethnic Armenians currently live in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Talks on Thursday between ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan came to an end without a final agreement, Russia’s RIA news agency reported, citing the ethnic Armenian representative. More talks are expected to take place in the near future.

Go on an abrupt 24-hour offensive by Azerbaijani forces on Tuesday that quickly broke ethnic Armenian lines, seized strategic positions and resulted in the surrender of separatist forces.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev declared in an address to the nation on Wednesday that “Karabakh is Azerbaijan,” stating that the military operation had succeeded with an “iron fist.”

Armenia, which has typically regarded Russia as a guarantor of its security, said Azerbaijan’s military operation was an attempt to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, a charge Baku has denied.

Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh accused Azerbaijan of violating a ceasefire agreement, with Reuters reports On Thursday, gunshots were heard in the region’s capital. Baku has rejected this accusation as “completely false.”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has faced calls to resign over the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, and thousands of people took to the streets of the Armenian capital Yerevan on Wednesday to condemn the government’s perceived failure.

Yerevan’s decision to remain on the sidelines during the military operation came at a time when the Armenian authorities lacked support for direct dialogue with Azerbaijan, which enjoys military superiority and has stronger supporters.

Analysts told CNBC that Pashinyan’s grip on power was “weakening by the minute” over the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, particularly given that the prime minister appears to enjoy neither domestic nor external support.

“For a long time, it was a war that many ignored,” Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasian political risk analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC by phone.

“There have been flare-ups here and there over the past few years, and the most recent one, a couple of days ago, was the most obvious sign that the chances of a return to war will potentially be imminent if proper peace talks are held. out,” Japaridze said.

For decades, Armenia has depended on Russia as a guarantor of its security. However, authorities are increasingly frustrated by what they see as the Kremlin’s unwillingness to support the country.

Russia, along with Armenia, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Formed in 2002, the Moscow-led security bloc is an intergovernmental military alliance composed of six post-Soviet states. Like NATO, the CSTO is based on the principle of collective defense, meaning that an attack on one member is recognized as an attack on all members.

Prime Minister of Armenia He suggested At the beginning of the year, Yerevan was considering withdrawing from the CSTO due to a lack of support from Russia. More recently, Pashinyan accepted that it had been a strategic mistake to rely solely on the Kremlin to guarantee the country’s security.

“Russia is Azerbaijan’s partner in this situation. Its main interest is to gain access to regional logistics, which will be unlocked after Karabakh returns to Azerbaijan,” Iliya Kusa, international relations analyst at the Institute think tank, told CNBC. Ukrainian for the Future. via email.

Kusa said he believes Moscow also hopes that the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan will trigger political unrest in Armenia, which could lead to Pashynian’s departure from office.

“Moscow is interested in replacing him with any other loyal figure from the opposition camp, which would further consolidate Russia’s control over Yerevan, which had been weakened in recent years by Pashynian’s attempts to reach out to the West and by the war. in Ukraine”. they added.

The Russian embassy in London did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Kremlin has rejected any suggestion that Moscow has not done enough to prevent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh and says it is in close contact with Azerbaijan, Armenia and ethnic Armenians in the disputed territory.

The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, said Russia’s role as a security guarantor for Armenia may be diminishing as the Kremlin continues to prioritize its large-scale invasion of Ukraine and as authorities In Yerevan they increasingly express their discontent with Moscow.

The ISW said on Wednesday that Russian military bloggers also appeared to lament Moscow’s waning influence in Armenia.

Japaridze of the Eurasia Group said the outcome of peace talks between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh authorities will likely determine what happens next.

“It will be very interesting to see what happens internally in Armenia, politically speaking, with Pashinyan’s leadership and whether or not he survives this. And then the other thing I would look at is to what extent the West will be able to intervene.”

Referring to the options available to the United States and the European Union, Japaridze said there did not appear to be much they could do other than call for an immediate reduction in tensions and publicly condemn military action.

The prospect of sanctions against Azerbaijan should be considered “very unlikely,” he added.