Updated ,first published
Labor has delayed a significant immigration crackdown after ministers raised questions about potential political backlash and unresolved financial costs of fewer migrants, as the party grapples with how to take a firmer line on migration against One Nation’s rising popularity.
Labor sources including cabinet ministers said the last-minute postponement of Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s keynote at the National Press Club, which had been scheduled for Thursday, would allow Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to oversee the sensitive announcement when he returns from leave at week’s end.
Burke was preparing to unveil his plans for bringing net migration down by as many as 75,000 people in the next two years. While that target is already baked into the federal budget, Labor has consistently blown its migration targets, and further policies were needed to meet the lower figure.
But ministers at a cabinet meeting on Monday, which was held without the prime minister, asked a series of questions on how Labor would justify tighter measures and respond to criticism the Greens and others on the left who may claim Labor was demonising migrants at a time when Pauline Hanson was stoking tension on race relations.
The government decided to pull Burke’s speech because some of the policies would have flow-on effects that needed more time to work through. These considerations include, but are not limited to, how migration changes would affect labour supply in key industries and how the tweaks could affect the budget and economy, which has been underpinned by high migration for years.
It was Albanese’s preference to be back at work for the announcement, they said, even if Burke was responsible for revealing the overhaul.
Ministers said Burke was prepared for the political brawl to come, and would likely focus on taking firmer controls of the migration system by stopping people taking advantage of the migration system, through manoeuvres such as overstaying or using the family system.
Sources said Burke would tell the public that the tightening was justified because existing integrity measures, which Labor adopted well before One Nation’s rise, had not done enough to bring down net overseas migration. The government will argue that it was required to take more action to gain control of migration numbers.
All the sources who spoke to this masthead flatly denied any cabinet bust-up. Several of them said that ministers were highly engaged on the issue and wanted to get the policy right to avoid repeating the challenges the federal budget, where Labor was required to clean up its tax changes with amendments.
Albanese and his ministers support the changes but Burke will take more time to finalise the policies. A speech is likely to be re-scheduled in the next few weeks.
“We’ll be acknowledging the genuine concerns people have about the migration system without dividing or demonising,” one senior Labor figure said. “We’ve been working on these issues for about a year so it isn’t a direct response to Hanson, but the language will obviously respond to One Nation and the current political climate.”
The ABC, which first revealed Burke’s delay on Tuesday, said the government was considering tougher family visa rules, capping the number of backpackers, and curbing the appeal rights of asylum seekers.
Ministers said Burke’s speech would focus on people taking advantage of the migration system, through overstaying, using the family system, and in other ways.
The Albanese government has consistently overshot its migration forecasts since coming to government as international borders re-opened following the pandemic.
In October 2022, it forecast there would be 235,000 net overseas migrants that financial year – instead there were 538,000. Latest figures suggest the intake has bottomed out around 300,000, which is higher than the pre-pandemic average.
In the May budget, government estimates for this financial year rose to 295,000 from the previous expectation of 260,000. The budget predicts it will drop to 225,000 by 2027-28.
Burke is not expected to announce a further cut to Labor’s forecast net overseas migration figure. Rather, he is likely to announce new methods to achieving its lower targets.
A spokesman for Burke said it became clear on Tuesday that some elements of the speech, which would centre on the migration system, would not be finished by Thursday.
“The speech will deal with the migration system as a whole. Yesterday it became clear that some elements of the speech would not be finalised by Thursday. We’re working with the press club to find a new date,” he said.
Labor MP Josh Burns said Australians wanted ministers to take the time to get policy announcements right, stressing he did not know what happened in cabinet.
“Australians would prefer us making sure we get really important reforms around migration and how it benefits and is worked through it and managed within our economy, versus coming in and announcing things that aren’t yet finalised.”
International students, temporary graduates, working holidaymakers and high arrival numbers of New Zealanders, who can migrate freely, have contributed to the post-pandemic surge in migration levels – as have relatively low departure rates.
While the government has made several policy changes to temper international student demand, a record number of working holidaymakers have arrived in Australia: 321,000 working holiday visas were issued in 2024-2025, up more than a third on the previous year.
This has been led by British backpackers, whose numbers have surged under the Morrison-era deal with the UK that expanded the eligible age range and scrapped requirements for regional work stints.
While the UK numbers are uncapped under the free trade agreement, the government revealed in the May budget that it would expand a lottery system for other countries to effectively set a limit on backpacker numbers.
In another budget decision, Labor also reworked the permanent visa allocation, so that a higher proportion of the 185,000 permanent visas issued each year would come from onshore, rather than offshore, applicants.
Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and won a Walkley award and the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect via X or email.
Natassia Chrysanthos is Federal Political Correspondent. She has previously reported on immigration, health, social issues and the NDIS from Parliament House in Canberra.Connect via X or email.
Brittany Busch is a federal politics reporter for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via email.From our partners
Discover more from PressNewsAgency
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.