Updated ,first published
Tel Aviv: Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed a mandate to remain as Israel’s prime minister in coalition with his far-right allies after Likud emerged as the nation’s biggest party, defying most pre-election polls and devastating left-wing Israelis desperate to see the end of his career.
An exit poll conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 showed Netanyahu’s bloc winning 52 seats in the Knesset, his Zionist opponents winning 49 seats and the Arab parties winning 19 with the other networks showing similar results.
Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition was sitting on an estimated 55 seats with 57 per cent of the votes counted on Wednesday morning (Israel time), shy of a parliamentary majority but exceeding pre-election expectations.
Netanyahu’s Likud remains as the country’s single biggest party with about 27 seats ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar on 21, after an energetic election-day effort to drive Likud’s traditional conservative supporters to the polls.
Addressing supporters at a 3am rally, Netanyahu said Likud had won the most seats and therefore a mandate to form “a strong right-wing national government”.
Netanyahu, who was first elected prime minister in 1996, said he would wait for “real results” before the outcome could be decided, but said Israel could not be led by a government supported by “Arab backing”.
The following days are set to be dominated by intense behind-the-scenes negotiations as Israeli politicians consider a range of possibilities including a unity government led by Netanyahu and including opponents who ran against him in the elections.
Eisenkot had considering the possibility of a minority government with the support of the Arab parties on Tuesday night. If no-one can form a coalition then Israelis will return to the polls for another round of elections likely early next year, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog – who decides which party leader gets the first chance to form a governing coalition – has said he is eager to avoid another round of elections.
A surge in turnout from Arab-Israeli voters has seen the two Arab party lists make substantial gains on the 10 seats won in the last elections in 2022.
But several key opposition leaders swore off governing with Arab parties during the campaign, complicating the possibility of forming a government dependent on their support.
Sixty-one seats are required to form a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, although it is possible to serve in a minority government.
Eisenkot vowed to do “everything to fulfil the people’s will,” saying that calling another election would be “a mistake”.
He said he would “do everything in my power to build a Zionist, pro-IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] enlistment government,” while warning Netanyahu not to play with national security for political gain.
There has been growing speculation the United States and Israel will soon begin another round of military strikes on Iran, which could come during negotiations over the next government.
Eisenkot earlier said the initial exit polls had shown “a victory for Israel’s civic-minded Zionist majority”, but those figures were later revised in Netanyahu’s favour.
Seventy-seven per cent of eligible voters turned out to vote, up from 71 per cent in 2022.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett said: “We will do everything, without ego, to establish a Zionist Alliance of Servants government, a government of doers, that will manage the country responsibly and serve all the People of Israel!”
United Arab List chairman Mansour Abbas said he hoped the opposition bloc and his party would secure a majority and oust Netanyahu.“I hope that the numbers will work out and we, the Bloc of Change and the UAL, can ensure that there are 61 Knesset seats,” he said.
Avigdor Lieberman, head of the secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, told supporters the final results could still change as hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots cast by on-duty soldiers are counted in the coming days.
He said it was unlikely many soldiers would support ultra-Orthodox parties, key Netanyahu allies or the Arab parties, and there would be a “much clearer picture” later this week.
Lieberman is a fierce adversary of Netanyahu, but he has also said he will not sit in a government that includes Arab parties.
Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz said the world faced a “dangerous situation” as Netanyahu could seek a confrontation with Iran to try to stay in power.
“This is a very plausible scenario and one that should not be underestimated,” he said on social media.
“The concern is not simply that Netanyahu might exploit another war for political future.
“It is that his inability to form a government, combined with his determination to remain prime minister, could create a powerful incentive to initiate or escalate a confrontation with Iran.”
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Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X, Facebook or email.From our partners
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