Netanyahu dislikes rotation deal, but also fears elections

Dec 18, 2020

Israel’s latest political crisis will be decided, one way or another, at midnight on Dec. 23. There is no other time, no other way. The law stipulates that unless the Knesset approves the state’s 2020 budget by that deadline, the Knesset is automatically disbanded and elections for a new legislature are held three months hence, meaning March 23, 2021, for the fourth time in less than two years.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces one of the toughest decisions of his life this coming weekend. All his options are bad, with some being downright risky. If he opts for elections, he will be doing so without having first nailed down the support of his future coalition government partners. For the first time since he took office in 2009, the source of the imminent existential threat hovering over him lies to his political right, with not one but three challengers, all former close associates with the most lethal being former Likud stalwart Gideon Saar.

Netanyahu’s options are clear. He could keep charging toward elections in hopes of overcoming his rivals against all odds, or he could compromise with his government partner/political rival, Defense Minister Benny Gantz. However, the only feasible compromise in the time left would entail concession — Netanyahu’s concession, and he hates giving in. The compromise that the Likud was willing to entertain two-three weeks ago, to extend the government’s term in order to keep Netanyahu in power until 2022 before he has to make way for Gantz under their power sharing deal, is no longer relevant. It would require amending Israel’s quasi-constitutional Basic Law and a special 70-member majority support in the 120-seat Knesset. Since Saar quit the Knesset last week and took two other coalition members with him — Knesset members Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — Netanyahu’s government no longer commands 70 seats.

The only relatively easy option remaining is to annul the law stipulating the Knesset’s automatic disbandment if the budget is not approved. This is the solution for which Gantz is pushing. It would close off Netanyahu’s remaining loophole to wiggle out of his deal with Gantz and deprive him of the promised job switch in November 2021.

Netanyahu must now decide what scares him more: elections or rotation with Gantz. Elections are a threat to his political future and possibly to his personal freedom as he maneuvers on the slippery slope of his criminal trial. If he makes good on his pledge to hand Gantz power next November, Netanyahu becomes the alternate prime minister — a title now held by Gantz — giving him abundant perks but little real power or authority. The decline in stature could affect the respect accorded to him by his three judges at Jerusalem’s District Court as he tries to prove his innocence of corruption charges. Nonetheless, he would still be in the saddle, as the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon liked to say, remaining a significant player and leader of the ruling party.

Gantz, chair of the Blue and White party, is also at a dramatic crossroads. Although he has far less to lose than Netanyahu, he knows that elections signal his political demise. His party may not even obtain sufficient votes to get into the next Knesset and he would disappear from the political map in a state of rare humiliation. On the other hand, he stands a chance of sorts of achieving the coveted rotation if he can stare down Netanyahu and the prime minister blinks first. Gantz’s situation is truly wondrous. In the next few days, he will know whether he is headed for paradise or hell, whether he will be sent home ignominiously or march triumphantly into the prime minister’s office.

However, the temptation to blink before Netanyahu is also great. If he agrees to postpone or even annul the rotation, he could spend the next three years as defense minister and alternate prime minister, enjoying the influence and responsibilities as leader of a party holding several influential Cabinet positions. True, his public support has been eroded to a bare minimum, with most voters who supported him through three back-to-back elections now viewing him as a traitor for joining forces with their greatest demon. The man who served in uniform for 40 years and climbed to the top as chief of the Israel Defense Forces, is now facing the harshest choice of his life. “He is being slaughtered,” one of his close associates told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “He thinks he doesn’t deserve this. He jumped on the hand grenade named Netanyahu, blocked him [from a Knesset majority] three times, so what do they want from him now?”

Netanyahu is also mulling his options. Family members are urging him to stand firm. Mrs. Netanyahu has no intention of packing. “The prime minister believes he can even beat Gideon Saar,” one of Netanyahu’s confidants told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “And if he fails to garner a 61-seat majority? Right now he does not have such a majority either. He will still fly to Morocco to meet the king, prospects for normalization with Saudi Arabia are good, the coronavirus vaccinations will curb the pandemic spread and uplift the public mood, and Netanyahu is still far from saying his final word. This is not a lost battle, and he has also won lost battles in the past.”

Despite this optimistic forecast, Netanyahu knows that Saar, a popular Likud veteran, is a different kind of opponent to the many others he has vanquished. “For the first time, Likud voters will be able to vote for someone who is not Netanyahu without feeling they have left their political home,” one of Saar’s advisers told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. Unlike Netanyahu’s demonization of rivals such as Yisrael Beitenu Chair Avigdor Liberman or law enforcement officials, whom he has tainted as “leftists,” Saar is a right-wing ideologue. “This is a new game with new rules,” the source said.

One significant consideration that could tip the scales against Netanyahu’s “compromise” stems from knowing that his continued partnership with Gantz also means the continuing term of Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn from Gantz’s party. Nissenkorn has been a persistent thorn in Netanyahu’s side since he took office in May, frustrating the Likud’s best efforts to muzzle his liberal leanings. He is the most influential figure in the appointment of Israel’s state prosecutor (who has already been named but not approved by the government), of the next attorney general and of at least two Supreme Court justices. These appointments are of paramount importance to Netanyahu’s fate. Leaving them in Gantz’s hands is dangerous, perhaps even more dangerous that the risk Netanyahu is willing to take.