Netanyahu’s survival plan: visiting Morocco and COVID-19 vaccination drive

Dec 22, 2020

Hard to believe, but it seems to be happening: Israel appears heading for elections in March 2021, its fourth in less than two years. Israel’s transformation into chaotic Italy was completed in the late-night hours of Dec. 21, when the opposition narrowly defeated a government-backed motion that would have postponed elections. The vote plunged Israel’s political system even deeper into chaos just seven months after formation of the monstrously large rotation government that was supposed to calm the waters.

For the first time since his 2009 reelection, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not setting the timetable or the agenda, and has lost control of the process. Things did not go the way he planned. He had been trying in recent days to push through a Knesset decision postponing the deadline for passage of the budget, which would also have meant delaying new elections; he even managed to get the Islamic party on board for the move, but his maneuver failed.

Netanyahu would have preferred elections in May or June, once the effects of the coronavirus vaccines had kicked in, following the May Independence Day celebrations that always prominently feature the prime minister, and after getting all his ducks in a row and further eroding his opposition. Instead, the timetable has been moved up and elections will happen far sooner than he wanted — within three months. For the first time in Israeli political history, a right-wing prime minister will be challenged by three rivals all positioned further to his right, depriving him of his exclusive hold on the right-wing electorate. What survival strategy will Israel’s greatest political magician ever adopt this time?

Netanyahu may not know the answer himself. The prime minister is under the influence of his family’s pressure to hold elections. No force in the world can convince him or them to deliver on the pledge he made earlier this year to his rival Defense Minister Benny Gantz to stay the course and hand over the reins of government to him in November 2021. That job share deal was the undoing of their so-called “unity” government before it even got off the ground. 

Netanyahu was also blindsided by his former protege Gideon Saar who quit the Likud in a dramatic move earlier this month and formed a new right-wing party. Saar has soared in the polls since his Dec. 8 announcement, garnering the equivalent of 19 (out of 120) Knesset seats in the latest survey on Dec. 21. As a result, unlike previous elections, Netanyahu does not have guaranteed partners for a future governing coalition even before balloting begins, nor does he have right-wing majority support. As aforementioned, Netanyahu also has three rivals, rather than a single challenger at whom to target his firepower, accuse of left-wing tendencies and turn voters against.

Netanyahu will face a divided front in the coming months, more dangerous and far more experienced than any he has faced so far. Saar is an arch-politician, in Israeli terms. He lacks Netanyahu’s sweeping charisma, but his toolbox is highly sophisticated and his killer instinct particularly well honed. Proof of the latter emerged earlier this week, when the gamble he took — jumping into the roiling political waters — paid off: Had Netanyahu and Gantz worked out a compromise to delay elections, Saar would have been left low and dry.

That did not work out. Two Likud Knesset members, “sleeper” Saar supporters, popped up at the last minute, entering the plenary during the late-night voting and voted against delaying elections. Netanyahu was stunned. For the first time he was being dragged into the arena rather than dragging his rivals into it; for the first time he was not the puppet master and master of his own fate.

Netanyahu’s blueprint for survival hinges on his charisma, his wondrous ability to bewitch wide swathes of the Israeli public into following him like the Pied Piper. Attempts are underway these days to arrange a visit by Netanyahu to Morocco, including a meeting with the king at his palace. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli voters trace their ancestry to Morocco, most of them keen Netanyahu supporters. He is counting on such a historic visit to bolster his base to the exclusion of his rivals on the right. Also in the planning are visits to the United Arab Emirates and perhaps other states.

More so, Netanyahu will boast of his success in obtaining coronavirus vaccines for Israelis far sooner than most countries, and will try to exploit them to his advantage. He is hoping the unprecedented vaccination operation will dramatically improve the downcast mood of his generally optimistic and fun-loving voters.

Netanyahu will undoubtedly mount a vicious campaign against his greatest threat, Saar. He will try to taint him as an ideological leftist, he will go as low as he needs, below the belt, to throw monkey wrenches in the wheels of Saar’s campaign. He believes in his ability to surmount this unprecedented obstacle, too.

This time, however, Netanyahu is being deprived of a key strategic asset. In the past three election campaigns, when his only significant rival was Gantz, Netanyahu played on the phobia harbored by many Israelis of the Arab Joint List. He accused the decorated general and the two other generals in the leadership of the Blue and White party of plotting to form a government with the Arabs, thereby robbing them of significant support. This time, Netanyahu will be walking around with egg on his face, having forged an alliance in recent months with the four Knesset members of the Islamist Ra’am party led by Mansour Abbas. On the night of the dramatic vote that would have postponed elections, the four Ra’am lawmakers walked out of the Knesset plenary in order to give Netanyahu’s maneuver a chance. Their absence failed to do the trick, but the damage had been done. His rivals will remind him of this anytime he tries to tar them by hinting at their planned cooperation with Arab lawmakers.

Washington, too, will presumably play a role in Netanyahu’s campaign. Initial feelers have been put out in recent days to gauge prospects of his first White House meeting with the new tenant, President-elect Joe Biden, in February or March. Netanyahu desperately needs such a photo-op to make up for the loss of his redheaded best friend in the Oval Office.

Netanyahu can count on a typically warm welcome. Flash bulbs will go off, joint statements will be made and Netanyahu will essentially be telling Israelis, “See? I know how to talk to Biden too. Who would you like to see dealing with the new Democratic administration, myself or Gideon Saar? Myself or [Yamina party leader] Naftali Bennett?” The question is whether the Americans will extend an invitation to Netanyahu, which might be construed as indirect involvement in Israel’s elections. The answer rests with Biden and his team. The answer to questions about Netanyahu’s political future no longer rests with him alone.