The slower pace of free-agency spending after the unhinged opening week allows teams to breathe, reassess and turn their primary focus to the 2024 NFL Draft.
The month-long gap until commissioner Roger Goodell begins announcing selections on April 25 allows sizzling speculation and overthinking to run wild. Separating fact from fiction isn’t easy, even for seasoned pros familiar with rumor-mill madness. Four to six quarterbacks in the first-round discussion will only intensify “lying season.”
This mock draft includes direct insight from scouting and coaching sources or assessments blended into the analysis. That isn’t to suggest consensus was obtained or that every opinion was taken on blind faith. At least the discussions helped clarify team needs and conflicting player evaluations, leading to a dizzying array of fake but plausible trades.
(Note: An asterisk indicates a proposed trade)
It sure feels like we can almost take out the pen for this projection. Any angst about Williams declining the Bears’ warm embrace faded at the NFL combine. Trading away Justin Fields soon followed, and repeating last year’s draft haul trade feels further away every day. This tight blurb reflects such thinking.
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The new regime, with general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn, has remained tight-lipped about its intentions. Is there a preference among the remaining quarterbacks? Would they love a trade-down knowing the sheer volume of needs for, as one active assistant coach said, the “hands-down worst roster in the league” before Peters and Quinn arrived?
Trading Sam Howell and not taking a quarterback prospect would be curious, even with Marcus Mariota around. If scouting sources mention a tier peer with Williams, it’s the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Daniels’ pressure-to-sack ratio is jarring, as are the hits the slender quarterback absorbs when on the move. “Jayden probably made more progress (year over year) than any QB coming out in the last five or six years,” said one high-ranking NFC scout. “He can anticipate, make all the throws and is a great athlete.”
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There’s no such thing as draft risers and fallers outside of a handful of injury, play-time or limited exposure scenarios. That sensation is public evaluators and media members catching up to the league’s scouting departments. This year’s prime example is McCarthy, who was deemed a mid-to-late first-round selection while leading Michigan to a national championship and a 27-1 record over the past two seasons.
While acknowledging the 21-year-old isn’t ready for Week 1 action, multiple league sources prefer his intangibles over other quarterbacks in this class. Soon we’ll see if the Patriots take the needed passer or help the overall roster. “Everyone thinks New England will take a quarterback, but they’ve got a bad roster,” one NFL scout said. “They have to get better talent across the offense. I think a team trades into the top five. There seems to be a lot more urgency with these teams needing quarterbacks this year.”
J.J. McCarthy’s highlight throws. Seems reasonable as such film cutups go…pic.twitter.com/6xJ4Vo3sib
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) March 24, 2024
Projected trade: Vikings acquire Nos. 4, 138 and 162 from Cardinals for Nos. 11, 23, 108 and a 2025 first-rounder
The draft community and many in the league view Minnesota’s recent acquisition of a second 2024 first-round pick as evidence that a bold move into the top five is coming. That’s a fair presumption, but it also implies that the Vikings are good with whichever top quarterback prospect falls to four. In this exercise, we’re saying the staff has a specific target in mind and, more importantly, feels comfortable he will be available.
Quarterbacks coach Josh McCown was on Maye’s high school staff, and the prospect with prototypical size and traits for the position seems like the better fit among the likely candidates for coach Kevin O’Connell — which means they go the extra mile to get the passer they want. The variance among league sources on Maye following a choppy final college season ranges from a longtime quarterbacks coach/offensive assistant saying, “I like Maye, but when I see the amount of work it will take to have him reach his potential, we’ll be fired first” to a scout’s praise, “he’ll be the best of the group.”
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The trade-down potential seems genuine, especially since adding picks never goes out of style, and snagging an offensive tackle (in the nine to 13 range) is the natural tone-setter for coach Jim Harbaugh. However, the team that traded Keenan Allen and released Mike Williams isn’t passing on one of the top receiver candidates in years.
A few clips of Marvin Harrison Jr. working from the slot (or what ends up being the slot) pic.twitter.com/EbQfhoBk3t
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 20, 2024
Drafting Daniel Jones’ replacement would be tempting, if possible. Selecting a game-breaking receiver, the kind rarely seen in East Rutherford, isn’t only doable but necessary no matter who plays quarterback. Nabers averaged 17.6 yards on 89 receptions in his final season with the Tigers.
This player-team combo is the definition of a plan coming together. Tennessee opened the wallet (maybe a bit too much?) in free agency for wide receiver Calvin Ridley. The move allows general manager Ran Carthon to continue upgrading the offensive line with the top-rated tackle prospect, and the second O-lineman (Peter Skoronski) grabbed in the first round in as many years. Add in the signing of free-agent center Lloyd Cushenberry, and the Titans are doing what they can to assist the development of quarterback Will Levis.
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Signing quarterback Kirk Cousins certainly wasn’t cheap, but the move puts the Falcons in the NFC contender class without costing draft picks. That allows general manager Terry Fontenot to grab Turner, who was tied atop the SEC with 10 sacks in 2023.
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Projected trade: Cardinals acquire No. 9 from Bears for Nos. 11 and 71
General manager Monti Ossenfort said he was “open” for business at No. 4. We’ll assume the desire to deal extends anywhere on Day 1. With 11 picks entering the draft, tied for the most in the league, plus more from the trade with Minnesota, the Cardinals have the assets to move around the board as needed. Arizona jumps up for the 6-foot-3 Odunze, who The Athletic’s Dane Brugler believes “has the pass-catching instincts and competitive focus to be a high-end NFL starter.”
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Acquiring Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses locked in the starting tackles. They come with age risk (both 33 years old), injury concerns (Smith has missed 37 games over the last four seasons) and expiring contracts. The staff has helped the present enough to grab a run-blocking mauler at offensive tackle who could play guard in the short term.
11. Chicago Bears (from MIN, via ARI*): Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
All the good vibes surrounding the Bears — outside of angry Fields backers — overshadows their minuscule number of picks (league-low four). Having Allen and DJ Moore on the roster allows general manager Ryan Poles to let Odunze pass to acquire a high third-rounder and a needed pass rusher opposite Montez Sweat.
Projected trade: Packers acquire No. 12 from Broncos for Nos. 25, 58, 91 and 245)
Another team with 11 draft selections, the Packers move up 13 spots for arguably the best defender in the class. Mitchell dominated the pre-draft cycle after blasting off last season with the Rockets. This addition and free-agent safety Xavier McKinney bolsters a secondary that will face Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen and Moore twice a season.
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The 6-foot-6, 335-pound Latham is an athletic force in pass protection who jumps straight into the starting lineup. There is always the smell of desperation among teams coveting a quarterback fix. Signing Gardner Minshew gives the Raiders a viable starter, but seeking more help isn’t out of the question.
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Offensive tackle is the (big) easy decision, considering Trevor Penning’s struggles. Having Bowers, Brugler’s fifth-ranked prospect, on the board changes the equation for an offense that lacks difference-making pass catchers beyond Chris Olave.
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The FBS leader with 17 touchdown receptions last season adds size and speed to help second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Going cornerback is the alternate path, especially with Alabama’s Terrion Arnold available, but solid Day 2 options exist.
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One of the “winners” of the pre-draft cycle, Fautanu reunites with former University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who now holds the same title with the Seahawks. Though set at tackle, Seattle’s interior line is inadequate, and Fautanu fits at guard. Wrote Bugler: “He flashes violence with his hands and makes defenders feel it when he connects.”
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Another strong player-to-team fit. Arnold can handle work at the slot or the boundary and do either with natural cover skills. Signing free agent Ronald Darby is a quality one-year move, but Arnold is the long-term play. Jacksonville tackled offensive line holes in free agency, replaced Ridley with Gabe Davis and kept pass rusher Josh Allen on the franchise tag.
The temptation for an offensive tackle is strong despite signing free agent Trent Brown to a one-year contract. Protect Joe Burrow at all costs. The Bengals also have some urgency on the defensive line with D.J. Reader signing with the Detroit Lions. Enter Murphy, who might be a draft-day steal if available at No. 18, considering his intense pocket-collapsing game shown at Texas (45 quarterback pressures).
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Taking an interior presence might have been too on the nose for the team that lost retiring all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That doesn’t mean skipping the D-line altogether. Some scouts have Latu’s pass-rushing chops at the top of this class. As long as the medical staff is good with assessing the 6-foot-4, 261-pound edge rusher who retired in 2021 with a neck injury before returning, the Rams add a weapon for their post-Donald world.
Based on potential, Fashanu is worthy of being the second tackle selected. “(Fashanu) is a true left tackle,” said one scout. “The rest (other than Joe Alt) are top-tier right tackles or fine at left tackle, but not elite.” Caleb Williams’ high school teammate might also need the most developmental time among the projected first-rounders. Only because the draft is loaded at tackle does Fashanu remain on the board here, and the Steelers pounce to acquire a bookend tackle with 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones.
The Dolphins suffered significant losses on both lines in free agency. Barton’s aptitude at all five spots gives the coaching staff flexibility, particularly with the interior line positions. Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton cannot be ruled out now that Christian Wilkins signed with the Raiders.
General manager Howie Roseman is religious about drafting premium positions, and the Eagles’ pass defense was messier last season than the Johnny Depp-Amber Heard trial. Brugler wrote on Wiggins: “With his athletic profile, Wiggins moves with quiet, controlled feet/hips to seamlessly transition out of breaks and accelerate to top gear (allowed only one catch of 20-plus yards last season, on 41 targets). His thin frame is a concern, and he needs to improve his consistency as a run defender, but he shows tremendous effort in pursuit.”
Is Nate Wiggins the best defensive back in this year’s #NFLDraft? 🤔@WigginNathaniel | @ClemsonFB pic.twitter.com/C9IA2A7knv
— NFL (@NFL) March 22, 2024
23. Arizona Cardinals (from MIN*): Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
The Cardinals’ second of three first-round selections is Powers-Johnson, who was honored with the Rimington Award as the nation’s best center. Whether he plays center or guard in Year 1, the offensive lineman should be a longtime fixture for Arizona.
Losing Smith and center Tyler Biadasz in free agency created significant holes along the offensive line. Enter Mims, a massive 6-foot-8, 320-pound hulking lineman who brings fascinating athletic traits but is inexperienced (only eight starts at Georgia).
“He’s more talented than some of the tackles who will be picked ahead of him,” said one scout, “but Mims is the one I’d bet falls.”
Drafting a first-round quarterback isn’t Sean Payton’s thing. Entering camp with only Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci probably isn’t either. Taking Nix offers youthful hope even if the Oregon standout is a bit older (24) than the typical rookie. There’s nothing normal with breaking the FBS record with a 77.4 completion percentage. The dropdown upped Denver’s pick total to 11, so moving around for a wideout or defensive back remains plausible.
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The reigning three-time NFC South champs were creative in keeping their pieces together this offseason but did release veteran edge rusher Shaquil Barrett. Robinson’s college stats were underwhelming (11 1/2 sacks in 30 games), but his athletic testing at the combine punctuated his standing atop Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks” list.
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27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri
A boost for the defense after back-to-back selections for the offense. This work-in-progress has scary athletic traits coming off the edge with enough size to play on the inside at times.
Losing significant talent this offseason means multiple positions could be targeted here, including wide receiver, center and interior defensive line. Signing free agent Curtis Samuel helps the track team aspect of the passing attack. Selecting Adonai Mitchell, a 6-foot-2 receiver with 4.34 speed and a 39 1/2-inch vertical supplies Josh Allen with a potential WR1 for years to come.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (from DET*): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Projected trade: Raiders acquire No. 29 from Lions for Nos. 44, 112 and a 2025 third-rounder with second-round potential
From the polish in the pocket, striking on deep throws and deftly evading sacks, two league sources rank the southpaw among the top three quarterback prospects. Another scout slotted the Heisman runner-up sixth due to mobility concerns, inconsistency with throws and his injury history.
For the Raiders, waiting another year means the new brain trust may not know if they have a long-term answer until 2026. Penix, 24 in May, is experienced enough to give him a shot to start quickly.
Michael Penix Jr. is rising up #NFLDraft boards. Where will he be taken? 👀📈
(via @UW_Football) pic.twitter.com/agx80QOjfW
— NFL (@NFL) March 23, 2024
30. Washington Commanders (from BAL*): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Projected trade: Commanders acquire No. 30 from Ravens for Nos. 40 and 78
The Commanders were the most active team in free agency, but they didn’t significantly fill their left tackle vacancy. Given how quickly teams snatch tackles, waiting to pounce in the early second round might be risky. Another danger would be not stabilizing the blindside spot with a rookie quarterback. Baltimore could use more picks after seeing numerous free agents leave, though standing pat and taking the 6-foot-8, 322-pound Guyton also works.
This choice leans into the best player available territory, though cornerback was the defensive weak link last season for San Francisco. The competitive DeJean has cornerback and safety experience and returned 21 punts last season for Iowa. The crowd-pleaser is going O-line since, beyond Trent Williams, the unit wasn’t up to the level of the overall roster.
Trading L’Jarius Sneed pushes cornerback up the Chiefs’ needs list. Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is sitting right there. So are wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy, though signing Marquise Brown curtailed angst. Concerns at left tackle remain. Morgan, a three-year starter at the position, earned All-Pac-12 honors in 2023 after an ACL tear cut his previous season short.
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Teams without a first-round pick
The Panthers gave quarterback Bryce Young a much-needed receiver boost by trading for Diontae Johnson. More is required. Now comes a polished route runner in McConkey.
There are enough offensive line options for the Ravens to add quality help and more picks. Another member of Feldman’s “Freaks” list, Suamataia has experience at both tackle spots plus intriguing measurables at the position.
The Texans took advantage of C.J. Stroud’s rookie contract by spending on pass rusher Danielle Hunter, along with the tight end and linebacker spots, but work on the offensive line isn’t complete.
Trading for Carlton Davis aided the cornerback room. Now comes a tag-team partner for Aidan Hutchinson.
Denzel Ward missed four games last season and has never played more than 15 in any campaign. One league source evaluates Tampa in the 25 to 40 range, though most public evaluations haven’t reflected such heights.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Rome Odunze: G Fiume, Julio Aguilar, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)