The conglomerate will announce the results after market hours on Friday, April 21.
Brokerage firms estimate a full pace return for RIL. While higher subscriber additions and stable ARPU (average revenue per user) are likely to boost the profits of the telecom segment, the retail segment will be boosted by higher store presence.
For the telecom segment, they expect Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to rise to as much as 16% yoy, while the retail segment is expected to post 35% yoy growth.
Overall, reported profit after tax (PAT) is likely to rise as much as 14% yoy to Rs 11,094 crore in Q4 FY23, expanding as much as 65 basis points (bps) in the operating profit margins at 17%.
Ahead of the fourth-quarter results, shares in Reliance Industries traded flat at Rs 2,341 per share in intraday trading on Thursday, against a 0.1 percent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.
Prabhudas Lilladher
The brokerage said the company is well positioned to benefit from strong refining margins due to geopolitical disruptions and higher gas profitability. Therefore, volumes are estimated to increase to 30 mmscmd (million metric standard cubic meters per day) in the fourth quarter of FY23 from ~19 mmscmd, in a prior year period.
Other than that, they expect consistent performance on Jio, with revenue growth of 3.3% in the quarter and ARPU up 2.1% in the quarter. The retail segment, on the other hand, is expected to show resilient profitability.
Analysts expect steady improvement across all RIL segments in Q4FY23, with stronger baseline GRMs. They also said that a lower windfall tax will boost O2C’s results. However, this refining momentum may be offset by weakness in the integrated petrochemicals business.
Overall, the brokerage models consolidated EBITDA growth for RIL at 7% qoq and 5% qoq for PAT, as higher interest costs may offset operating profits.
For the telecommunications segment, the brokerage expects Reliance Jio to generate a 2% QoQ increase in Ebitda. Retail is also likely to maintain third-quarter momentum, with an estimated 6% qoq increase in Ebitda.
The brokerage estimates that RIL’s consolidated Ebitda will improve 7% qoq and 10% yoy to Rs 16,019 crore in Q4 2023, reflecting resilient GRM, improved petrochemical margins, higher exploration production and production (E&P) into increased gas production.
In the O2C segment, they expect refining margins to remain resilient, margin recovery in petrochemicals, and a reduced impact of windfall tax.
For telecoms, Reliance Jio’s Ebitda is likely to rise 2% qoq, driven by 5.7 million total net adds. The combined ARPU, while it is likely to be flat at Rs 178.
Retail, analysts said, will post a 2% qoq rise in Ebitda to Rs 4,838 crore in the fourth quarter of FY23, led by higher store presence.
Sharekhan
Analysts forecast the conglomerate’s consolidated PAT to rise 7% qoq to Rs 16,960 crore, due to higher O2C earnings and decent growth from the retail and Jio businesses.
However, they expect headline sales to decline 1.6% qoq to Rs 2.13 trillion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. Meanwhile, operating profit margins are estimated to expand 65 basis points (bps). ) quarter-on-quarter to 16.9 percent.
Among the players in the middle, analysts said RIL’s strong growth outlook for consumer-focused businesses, reasonable valuation and unlocking value in the digital and retail segments will add shareholder value for years to come. Therefore, given the run-up to the AGM, RIL remains a favorable investment bet, they added.
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