Oil dips on demand forecasts, global equities gain

NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 12 : Global equities were higher on Wednesday after mild inflation data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady, while oil prices dipped as investors balanced lower demand against a deadlock in U.S.-Iran talks.

The United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate ship attacks. But oil prices fell as investors weighed lower demand forecasts.

U.S. consumer prices increased 0.1 per cent in July, in line with expectations, data showed on Wednesday. The small increase could weaken the argument for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month. Money markets have shown a roughly 50 per cent chance of a hike heading into the data release.

The data “relieves some of the concerns that the Fed is being pushed toward a rate hike due to inflation, which is being fueled by higher energy prices,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management in Fairfield, Connecticut.

Gold prices touched their highest in more than two months as the data dented rate hike bets. U.S. Treasuries held gains, lifting yields. [GOL/]

The data did not capture the most recent rise in oil prices, which have hurtled higher amid tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.33 per cent to 1,154.42.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.05 per cent to 53,820.52, the S&P 500 added 0.31 per cent to 7,752.45 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.64 per cent to 26,613.91.

Upbeat results from AI cloud company CoreWeave after the market closed on Tuesday gave the AI trade another boost. Other AI infrastructure providers also rose.

In Europe, the pan-continental STOXX 600 fell 0.16 per cent.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed higher by 0.92 per cent at 1,636.51.

Emerging market stocks rose 0.95 per cent to 1,681.25.

TALKS TO END IRAN WAR CONTINUE

Markets were still following talks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic.

The U.S. and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday, while both Iran and the U.S. have stepped up their rhetoric in recent days.

Iran’s most senior security official said on Tuesday the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions.

Still, investors have been calm.

“Our base case for a long time has been a gradual but messy de-escalation,” said Dorian Carrell, head of multi-asset income at Schroders.

“We don’t expect traffic (through the Strait of Hormuz) to go to its full capacity. We think that puts a floor on the oil price and maintains an energy-driven inflationary driver in markets in the near- to medium-term.”

Oil prices fell, having climbed $1 earlier in the session, after forecasters cut projections for 2026 global demand. Brent crude futures dropped 0.37 per cent to $88.58 per barrel, and U.S. crude fell 0.26 per cent to $82.98.

MARKETS ANTICIPATE A BOJ HIKE 

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.6 basis points to 4.668 per cent.

Markets are increasingly pricing in an early rate hike in Japan, putting pressure on the nation’s shorter-dated bonds. Investors priced in an almost 60 per cent chance of a quarter-point hike at the Bank of Japan’s September meeting. 

The yen weakened 0.07 per cent to 159.39 per dollar, remaining off last week’s high of 155.20 after several suspected rounds of intervention.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,rose 0.15 per cent to 99.95, with the euro down 0.1 per cent at $1.1528.

Spot gold rose 0.88 per cent to $4,405.10 an ounce.