Oil gains as talks to end US-Iran war remain uncertain

GULF SHIPPING TRAFFIC LITTLE CHANGED 

The Hormuz dispute is a central sticking point in talks. Before the conflict began in late February, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. 

“Gulf exports remained under pressure, with Strait of Hormuz transits only marginally improving from extremely depressed levels. The export disruption story is intact, with Iranian attacks on vessels constraining flows,” ANZ analysts said. 

Shipping traffic at the key Gulf waterways of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz held largely unchanged at the start of the week. Hormuz remains dangerous for vessels. 

On Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency flagged an incident 20 nautical miles (37km) northeast of Oman’s Al Khasab, after a cargo vessel broadcast that it had been hit by an unknown projectile. 

In the Red Sea, six Saudi-flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden recently for southern Africa, while two tankers laden with Saudi oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, shipping data showed on Monday. 

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to remain in an US$80 to US$90 a barrel range until there is either confirmation of a new US-Iran agreement or a significant escalation in attacks and targets. 

The bank said the physical oil market was tightening, with its global visible stocks counter showing inventories falling by 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, likely driven by lower flows from the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, reduced Russian oil exports, and stronger Asian imports, including from China.